Joe Neguse’s long incumbency in Colorado’s 2nd Congressional District, combined with its consistent Democratic lean of roughly D+20 on the Partisan Voter Index and his 68% margin in the prior cycle, anchors trader expectations ahead of the November 3 general election. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure, low primary turnout that produced nominee Kelley Dennison, and stark fundraising gaps that favor the sitting member. Dennison, a first-time candidate who defeated a primary opponent in June, faces structural headwinds in a district encompassing Boulder and Fort Collins that has not elected a Republican since 1972. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for similar safe seats, though late developments such as a major scandal, candidate withdrawal, or abrupt national realignment could still compress the margin before ballots are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCO-02 House Election Winner
CO-02 House Election Winner
$40,731 Vol.
$40,731 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Joe Neguse (D)
95%
Kelley Dennison (R)
4%
$40,731 Vol.
$40,731 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Joe Neguse (D)
$19,162 Vol.
95%
Kelley Dennison (R)
$21,569 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Joe Neguse’s long incumbency in Colorado’s 2nd Congressional District, combined with its consistent Democratic lean of roughly D+20 on the Partisan Voter Index and his 68% margin in the prior cycle, anchors trader expectations ahead of the November 3 general election. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure, low primary turnout that produced nominee Kelley Dennison, and stark fundraising gaps that favor the sitting member. Dennison, a first-time candidate who defeated a primary opponent in June, faces structural headwinds in a district encompassing Boulder and Fort Collins that has not elected a Republican since 1972. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for similar safe seats, though late developments such as a major scandal, candidate withdrawal, or abrupt national realignment could still compress the margin before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$40,731End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Joe Neguse’s long incumbency in Colorado’s 2nd Congressional District, combined with its consistent Democratic lean of roughly D+20 on the Partisan Voter Index and his 68% margin in the prior cycle, anchors trader expectations ahead of the November 3 general election. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure, low primary turnout that produced nominee Kelley Dennison, and stark fundraising gaps that favor the sitting member. Dennison, a first-time candidate who defeated a primary opponent in June, faces structural headwinds in a district encompassing Boulder and Fort Collins that has not elected a Republican since 1972. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for similar safe seats, though late developments such as a major scandal, candidate withdrawal, or abrupt national realignment could still compress the margin before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$40,731End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Joe Neguse’s long incumbency in Colorado’s 2nd Congressional District, combined with its consistent Democratic lean of roughly D+20 on the Partisan Voter Index and his 68% margin in the prior cycle, anchors trader expectations ahead of the November 3 general election. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure, low primary turnout that produced nominee Kelley Dennison, and stark fundraising gaps that favor the sitting member. Dennison, a first-time candidate who defeated a primary opponent in June, faces structural headwinds in a district encompassing Boulder and Fort Collins that has not elected a Republican since 1972. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for similar safe seats, though late developments such as a major scandal, candidate withdrawal, or abrupt national realignment could still compress the margin before ballots are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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