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icon for French Socialist Primary: First Round 2nd Place
Politics·France

French Socialist Primary: First Round 2nd Place

icon for French Socialist Primary: First Round 2nd Place
Politics·France

French Socialist Primary: First Round 2nd Place

Olivier Faure 43%

Raphaël Glucksmann 15%

Philippe Brun 12%

Ségolène Royal 10%

Polymarket
NEW

Olivier Faure 43%

Raphaël Glucksmann 15%

Philippe Brun 12%

Ségolène Royal 10%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Olivier Faure

Olivier Faure

$554 Vol.

43%

icon for Raphaël Glucksmann

Raphaël Glucksmann

$1,566 Vol.

15%

icon for Philippe Brun

Philippe Brun

$69 Vol.

12%

icon for Ségolène Royal

Ségolène Royal

$947 Vol.

10%

icon for Jérôme Guedj

Jérôme Guedj

$208 Vol.

8%

icon for Emmanuel Maurel

Emmanuel Maurel

$212 Vol.

7%

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary. If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The French Socialist primary's first round, set for October 9-10, 2026, features a fragmented field where internal party divisions and procedural disputes have kept second-place probabilities closely contested among leading contenders. Olivier Faure's late-August entry as PS first secretary directly challenged early favorite Raphaël Glucksmann, shifting momentum amid debates over the 15-euro participation fee, voter eligibility for the closed primary involving PS, Place Publique, and GRS members, and the scope of televised debates. Tensions over including figures like François Ruffin and the winner's potential role in a broader left primary have underscored factional splits, with Glucksmann's stronger presidential polling offset by resistance within PS ranks. These dynamics sustain uncertainty, as candidate positioning, endorsements, and any last-minute application shifts before September 15 could realign trader consensus on placement outcomes.

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.

This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.

If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".

Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary. If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Volume
$3,556
End Date
Oct 10, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 6:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary. If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The French Socialist primary's first round, set for October 9-10, 2026, features a fragmented field where internal party divisions and procedural disputes have kept second-place probabilities closely contested among leading contenders. Olivier Faure's late-August entry as PS first secretary directly challenged early favorite Raphaël Glucksmann, shifting momentum amid debates over the 15-euro participation fee, voter eligibility for the closed primary involving PS, Place Publique, and GRS members, and the scope of televised debates. Tensions over including figures like François Ruffin and the winner's potential role in a broader left primary have underscored factional splits, with Glucksmann's stronger presidential polling offset by resistance within PS ranks. These dynamics sustain uncertainty, as candidate positioning, endorsements, and any last-minute application shifts before September 15 could realign trader consensus on placement outcomes.

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.

This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.

If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".

Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary. If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Volume
$3,556
End Date
Oct 10, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 6:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"French Socialist Primary: First Round 2nd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Olivier Faure" at 43%, followed by "Raphaël Glucksmann" at 15%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"French Socialist Primary: First Round 2nd Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "French Socialist Primary: First Round 2nd Place," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "French Socialist Primary: First Round 2nd Place" is "Olivier Faure" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Raphaël Glucksmann" at 15%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "French Socialist Primary: First Round 2nd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.