Michigan stands out among 2026 Senate toss-ups as the strongest Democratic opportunity due to its even partisan voting index and status as an open seat following Gary Peters’ retirement. Recent polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed running close or slightly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers in a battleground state. Maine follows as the top Republican-held target, with Susan Collins facing Troy Jackson in a D-leaning state rated toss-up by major forecasters after the Democratic primary replacement. Ohio, Alaska, and Texas feature strong Democratic challengers such as Sherrod Brown and Mary Peltola in races shifted toward competitiveness by candidate recruitment and national conditions, while Iowa remains more Republican-leaning despite its inclusion among toss-ups. Trader consensus reflects these structural and polling dynamics across the competitive map.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMichigan 43%
Maine 20%
Ohio 13.6%
Texas 13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
43%
Maine
20%
Ohio
14%
Texas
8%
Alaska
6%
Iowa
4%
Michigan 43%
Maine 20%
Ohio 13.6%
Texas 13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
$3,004 Vol.
43%
Maine
$381 Vol.
20%
Ohio
$386 Vol.
14%
Texas
$149 Vol.
8%
Alaska
$251 Vol.
6%
Iowa
$144 Vol.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands out among 2026 Senate toss-ups as the strongest Democratic opportunity due to its even partisan voting index and status as an open seat following Gary Peters’ retirement. Recent polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed running close or slightly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers in a battleground state. Maine follows as the top Republican-held target, with Susan Collins facing Troy Jackson in a D-leaning state rated toss-up by major forecasters after the Democratic primary replacement. Ohio, Alaska, and Texas feature strong Democratic challengers such as Sherrod Brown and Mary Peltola in races shifted toward competitiveness by candidate recruitment and national conditions, while Iowa remains more Republican-leaning despite its inclusion among toss-ups. Trader consensus reflects these structural and polling dynamics across the competitive map.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$4,316End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands out among 2026 Senate toss-ups as the strongest Democratic opportunity due to its even partisan voting index and status as an open seat following Gary Peters’ retirement. Recent polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed running close or slightly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers in a battleground state. Maine follows as the top Republican-held target, with Susan Collins facing Troy Jackson in a D-leaning state rated toss-up by major forecasters after the Democratic primary replacement. Ohio, Alaska, and Texas feature strong Democratic challengers such as Sherrod Brown and Mary Peltola in races shifted toward competitiveness by candidate recruitment and national conditions, while Iowa remains more Republican-leaning despite its inclusion among toss-ups. Trader consensus reflects these structural and polling dynamics across the competitive map.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,316End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Michigan stands out among 2026 Senate toss-ups as the strongest Democratic opportunity due to its even partisan voting index and status as an open seat following Gary Peters’ retirement. Recent polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed running close or slightly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers in a battleground state. Maine follows as the top Republican-held target, with Susan Collins facing Troy Jackson in a D-leaning state rated toss-up by major forecasters after the Democratic primary replacement. Ohio, Alaska, and Texas feature strong Democratic challengers such as Sherrod Brown and Mary Peltola in races shifted toward competitiveness by candidate recruitment and national conditions, while Iowa remains more Republican-leaning despite its inclusion among toss-ups. Trader consensus reflects these structural and polling dynamics across the competitive map.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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