Recent polling averages and forecasting models show a narrow national environment heading into the November 3 midterms, with Democrats positioned to challenge for Senate control in multiple Republican-held seats and several open Democratic seats rated as toss-ups. Key battlegrounds include North Carolina’s open race following Thom Tillis’s retirement, Michigan’s open seat after Gary Peters’s retirement, and unexpectedly competitive contests in Texas, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, and Alaska. Primary outcomes, candidate positioning, and shifts in generic ballot trends have tightened margins in these states, while historical patterns of late movement in close Senate races and the structural map increase the chance of outcomes decided by very narrow vote shares. Traders are monitoring upcoming debates, advertising surges, and any last-minute national developments that could alter turnout or undecided voters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Nov 3, 2026
Ohio (Special)
49%
Alaska
25%
Maine
21%
New Hampshire
20%
Texas
19%
Michigan
17%
North Carolina
11%
Iowa
16%
Georgia
9%
Minnesota
8%
New Mexico
8%
Montana
4%
Colorado
4%
Virginia
2%
Nebraska
45%
Florida (Special)
47%
$2,434 Vol.
Ohio (Special)
$84 Vol.
49%
Alaska
$90 Vol.
25%
Maine
$0 Vol.
21%
New Hampshire
$116 Vol.
20%
Texas
$52 Vol.
19%
Michigan
$177 Vol.
17%
North Carolina
$10 Vol.
11%
Iowa
$100 Vol.
16%
Georgia
$0 Vol.
9%
Minnesota
$99 Vol.
8%
New Mexico
$274 Vol.
8%
Montana
$154 Vol.
4%
Colorado
$945 Vol.
4%
Virginia
$157 Vol.
2%
Nebraska
$106 Vol.
45%
Florida (Special)
$70 Vol.
47%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages and forecasting models show a narrow national environment heading into the November 3 midterms, with Democrats positioned to challenge for Senate control in multiple Republican-held seats and several open Democratic seats rated as toss-ups. Key battlegrounds include North Carolina’s open race following Thom Tillis’s retirement, Michigan’s open seat after Gary Peters’s retirement, and unexpectedly competitive contests in Texas, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, and Alaska. Primary outcomes, candidate positioning, and shifts in generic ballot trends have tightened margins in these states, while historical patterns of late movement in close Senate races and the structural map increase the chance of outcomes decided by very narrow vote shares. Traders are monitoring upcoming debates, advertising surges, and any last-minute national developments that could alter turnout or undecided voters.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Volume
$2,434End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages and forecasting models show a narrow national environment heading into the November 3 midterms, with Democrats positioned to challenge for Senate control in multiple Republican-held seats and several open Democratic seats rated as toss-ups. Key battlegrounds include North Carolina’s open race following Thom Tillis’s retirement, Michigan’s open seat after Gary Peters’s retirement, and unexpectedly competitive contests in Texas, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, and Alaska. Primary outcomes, candidate positioning, and shifts in generic ballot trends have tightened margins in these states, while historical patterns of late movement in close Senate races and the structural map increase the chance of outcomes decided by very narrow vote shares. Traders are monitoring upcoming debates, advertising surges, and any last-minute national developments that could alter turnout or undecided voters.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,434End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages and forecasting models show a narrow national environment heading into the November 3 midterms, with Democrats positioned to challenge for Senate control in multiple Republican-held seats and several open Democratic seats rated as toss-ups. Key battlegrounds include North Carolina’s open race following Thom Tillis’s retirement, Michigan’s open seat after Gary Peters’s retirement, and unexpectedly competitive contests in Texas, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, and Alaska. Primary outcomes, candidate positioning, and shifts in generic ballot trends have tightened margins in these states, while historical patterns of late movement in close Senate races and the structural map increase the chance of outcomes decided by very narrow vote shares. Traders are monitoring upcoming debates, advertising surges, and any last-minute national developments that could alter turnout or undecided voters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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