Recent polls show Renato Casagrande holding a clear lead for one Espírito Santo Senate seat, leaving a fragmented contest for second among Sergio Meneguelli, Fabiano Contarato, Rose de Freitas, Maguinha Malta, Evair de Melo, and Marcos do Val. High undecided and blank/null shares, combined with voters selecting two names on the ballot, sustain this equilibrium and keep implied probabilities for second place closely bunched. No major campaign developments or endorsements have consolidated support since the latest surveys. Further polling, candidate debates, or coalition alignments ahead of the October 4 vote could shift resources and widen gaps among the pack.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSergio Meneguelli 37%
Maguinha Malta 25.4%
Fabiano Contarato 21.1%
Rose de Freitas 17.4%
$41,350 Vol.
$41,350 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Meneguelli
37%
Maguinha Malta
25%
Fabiano Contarato
21%
Rose de Freitas
17%
Evair de Melo
5%
Renato Casagrande
4%
Callegari
<1%
Leonardo Monjardim
<1%
Marcos do Val
<1%
Professor Fabian
<1%
Rodney Miranda
<1%
Sergio Meneguelli 37%
Maguinha Malta 25.4%
Fabiano Contarato 21.1%
Rose de Freitas 17.4%
$41,350 Vol.
$41,350 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Meneguelli
$22,290 Vol.
37%
Maguinha Malta
$1,676 Vol.
25%
Fabiano Contarato
$7,125 Vol.
21%
Rose de Freitas
$4,690 Vol.
17%
Evair de Melo
$1,336 Vol.
5%
Renato Casagrande
$1,184 Vol.
4%
Callegari
$833 Vol.
<1%
Leonardo Monjardim
$706 Vol.
<1%
Marcos do Val
$672 Vol.
<1%
Professor Fabian
$422 Vol.
<1%
Rodney Miranda
$414 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls show Renato Casagrande holding a clear lead for one Espírito Santo Senate seat, leaving a fragmented contest for second among Sergio Meneguelli, Fabiano Contarato, Rose de Freitas, Maguinha Malta, Evair de Melo, and Marcos do Val. High undecided and blank/null shares, combined with voters selecting two names on the ballot, sustain this equilibrium and keep implied probabilities for second place closely bunched. No major campaign developments or endorsements have consolidated support since the latest surveys. Further polling, candidate debates, or coalition alignments ahead of the October 4 vote could shift resources and widen gaps among the pack.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET
Volume
$41,350End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls show Renato Casagrande holding a clear lead for one Espírito Santo Senate seat, leaving a fragmented contest for second among Sergio Meneguelli, Fabiano Contarato, Rose de Freitas, Maguinha Malta, Evair de Melo, and Marcos do Val. High undecided and blank/null shares, combined with voters selecting two names on the ballot, sustain this equilibrium and keep implied probabilities for second place closely bunched. No major campaign developments or endorsements have consolidated support since the latest surveys. Further polling, candidate debates, or coalition alignments ahead of the October 4 vote could shift resources and widen gaps among the pack.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$41,350End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show Renato Casagrande holding a clear lead for one Espírito Santo Senate seat, leaving a fragmented contest for second among Sergio Meneguelli, Fabiano Contarato, Rose de Freitas, Maguinha Malta, Evair de Melo, and Marcos do Val. High undecided and blank/null shares, combined with voters selecting two names on the ballot, sustain this equilibrium and keep implied probabilities for second place closely bunched. No major campaign developments or endorsements have consolidated support since the latest surveys. Further polling, candidate debates, or coalition alignments ahead of the October 4 vote could shift resources and widen gaps among the pack.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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