Lula has publicly signaled reluctance to join first-round debates, citing a desire to avoid low-value exchanges and evaluate the format's relevance to voters. His campaign cited unequal conditions at the August 23 Band event—where only lower-polling candidates appeared—as a key reason for his absence, with Flávio Bolsonaro conditioning participation on Lula's presence. Multiple outlets report the strategy favors skipping earlier debates, potentially limiting involvement to the final Globo event on October 1 or none at all. These statements and the realized non-participation in the initial round have shaped trader consensus around a "No" outcome.