**Arthur Henrique (PL) holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for the October 4, 2026 Roraima gubernatorial election, reflecting consistent polling advantages of roughly 55–60% against Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) at 27–28% and minimal support for the remaining candidates.** His position stems from strong name recognition as two-term mayor of Boa Vista, decisive performance in the June 2026 supplementary election despite the unresolved sub judice eligibility challenge over desincompatibilização timing, and backing from the PL with visible national party ties. Recent Quaest and Census surveys confirm the gap, while the fragmented field and low single-digit shares for Farah Mesquita, Rosi Aires, and others limit viable alternatives. A late adverse court ruling on registration, unexpected scandal, or sharp polling shift could still narrow the margin before election day, though current evidence points to sustained frontrunner status.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedArthur Henrique 94%
Soldado Sampaio 3.5%
Farah Mesquita 1.8%
Rosi Aires 1.0%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Arthur Henrique
94%
Soldado Sampaio
4%
Farah Mesquita
2%
Rosi Aires
1%
Clébio Genuíno
<1%
Arthur Henrique 94%
Soldado Sampaio 3.5%
Farah Mesquita 1.8%
Rosi Aires 1.0%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Arthur Henrique
$4,769 Vol.
94%
Soldado Sampaio
$183 Vol.
4%
Farah Mesquita
$153 Vol.
2%
Rosi Aires
$222 Vol.
1%
Clébio Genuíno
$287 Vol.
<1%
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Arthur Henrique (PL) holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for the October 4, 2026 Roraima gubernatorial election, reflecting consistent polling advantages of roughly 55–60% against Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) at 27–28% and minimal support for the remaining candidates.**
His position stems from strong name recognition as two-term mayor of Boa Vista, decisive performance in the June 2026 supplementary election despite the unresolved sub judice eligibility challenge over desincompatibilização timing, and backing from the PL with visible national party ties. Recent Quaest and Census surveys confirm the gap, while the fragmented field and low single-digit shares for Farah Mesquita, Rosi Aires, and others limit viable alternatives.
A late adverse court ruling on registration, unexpected scandal, or sharp polling shift could still narrow the margin before election day, though current evidence points to sustained frontrunner status.
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ET
Volume
$5,614End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Arthur Henrique (PL) holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for the October 4, 2026 Roraima gubernatorial election, reflecting consistent polling advantages of roughly 55–60% against Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) at 27–28% and minimal support for the remaining candidates.**
His position stems from strong name recognition as two-term mayor of Boa Vista, decisive performance in the June 2026 supplementary election despite the unresolved sub judice eligibility challenge over desincompatibilização timing, and backing from the PL with visible national party ties. Recent Quaest and Census surveys confirm the gap, while the fragmented field and low single-digit shares for Farah Mesquita, Rosi Aires, and others limit viable alternatives.
A late adverse court ruling on registration, unexpected scandal, or sharp polling shift could still narrow the margin before election day, though current evidence points to sustained frontrunner status.
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$5,614End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Arthur Henrique (PL) holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for the October 4, 2026 Roraima gubernatorial election, reflecting consistent polling advantages of roughly 55–60% against Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) at 27–28% and minimal support for the remaining candidates.** His position stems from strong name recognition as two-term mayor of Boa Vista, decisive performance in the June 2026 supplementary election despite the unresolved sub judice eligibility challenge over desincompatibilização timing, and backing from the PL with visible national party ties. Recent Quaest and Census surveys confirm the gap, while the fragmented field and low single-digit shares for Farah Mesquita, Rosi Aires, and others limit viable alternatives. A late adverse court ruling on registration, unexpected scandal, or sharp polling shift could still narrow the margin before election day, though current evidence points to sustained frontrunner status.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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