Lula maintains a commanding lead in Paraíba polling for the October 2026 first round, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest showing him at 50-55% against single-digit or low-20s support for rivals including Flávio Bolsonaro. This positioning reflects entrenched voter preferences in the Northeast state, where the incumbent benefits from established party networks, government approval ratings around 60%, and fragmented opposition candidacies such as those of Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and smaller figures like Augusto Cury. Traders price the outcome at 95.9% for Lula based on these consistent regional margins exceeding 25 points. Shifts could still arise from late-campaign developments, turnout changes among undecided voters, or national events altering local sentiment before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 94.5%
Escritor Augusto Cury 1.1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
94%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Zema
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Samara
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Lula 94.5%
Escritor Augusto Cury 1.1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$4,184 Vol.
94%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$678 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$431 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$483 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$431 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$431 Vol.
1%
Zema
$431 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$431 Vol.
1%
Samara
$431 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$431 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$431 Vol.
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$452 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$431 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Paraíba polling for the October 2026 first round, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest showing him at 50-55% against single-digit or low-20s support for rivals including Flávio Bolsonaro. This positioning reflects entrenched voter preferences in the Northeast state, where the incumbent benefits from established party networks, government approval ratings around 60%, and fragmented opposition candidacies such as those of Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and smaller figures like Augusto Cury. Traders price the outcome at 95.9% for Lula based on these consistent regional margins exceeding 25 points. Shifts could still arise from late-campaign developments, turnout changes among undecided voters, or national events altering local sentiment before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Volume
$9,677End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Paraíba polling for the October 2026 first round, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest showing him at 50-55% against single-digit or low-20s support for rivals including Flávio Bolsonaro. This positioning reflects entrenched voter preferences in the Northeast state, where the incumbent benefits from established party networks, government approval ratings around 60%, and fragmented opposition candidacies such as those of Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and smaller figures like Augusto Cury. Traders price the outcome at 95.9% for Lula based on these consistent regional margins exceeding 25 points. Shifts could still arise from late-campaign developments, turnout changes among undecided voters, or national events altering local sentiment before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,677End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Paraíba polling for the October 2026 first round, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest showing him at 50-55% against single-digit or low-20s support for rivals including Flávio Bolsonaro. This positioning reflects entrenched voter preferences in the Northeast state, where the incumbent benefits from established party networks, government approval ratings around 60%, and fragmented opposition candidacies such as those of Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and smaller figures like Augusto Cury. Traders price the outcome at 95.9% for Lula based on these consistent regional margins exceeding 25 points. Shifts could still arise from late-campaign developments, turnout changes among undecided voters, or national events altering local sentiment before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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