Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), the incumbent seeking re-election, leads the Bahia governor market at 61.5% implied probability, with ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 39%. Recent polling from late August and early September shows a technical tie or narrow margins in first- and second-round scenarios, reflecting a competitive race shaped by PT's long hold on the governorship since 2007 and Jerônimo's incumbency resources. ACM Neto, a former Salvador mayor from a prominent political family, has emphasized infrastructure critiques and logged extensive campaign travel. Both candidates have focused on interior municipalities ahead of the October vote, with no decisive late shifts altering the closely contested dynamics reflected in trader pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJerônimo Rodrigues 63%
ACM Neto 38%
João Roma <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$150,608 Vol.
$150,608 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
63%
ACM Neto
38%
João Roma
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 63%
ACM Neto 38%
João Roma <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$150,608 Vol.
$150,608 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$49,800 Vol.
63%
ACM Neto
$58,683 Vol.
38%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$11,986 Vol.
<1%
Kleber Rosa
$13,880 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), the incumbent seeking re-election, leads the Bahia governor market at 61.5% implied probability, with ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 39%. Recent polling from late August and early September shows a technical tie or narrow margins in first- and second-round scenarios, reflecting a competitive race shaped by PT's long hold on the governorship since 2007 and Jerônimo's incumbency resources. ACM Neto, a former Salvador mayor from a prominent political family, has emphasized infrastructure critiques and logged extensive campaign travel. Both candidates have focused on interior municipalities ahead of the October vote, with no decisive late shifts altering the closely contested dynamics reflected in trader pricing.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$150,608End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), the incumbent seeking re-election, leads the Bahia governor market at 61.5% implied probability, with ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 39%. Recent polling from late August and early September shows a technical tie or narrow margins in first- and second-round scenarios, reflecting a competitive race shaped by PT's long hold on the governorship since 2007 and Jerônimo's incumbency resources. ACM Neto, a former Salvador mayor from a prominent political family, has emphasized infrastructure critiques and logged extensive campaign travel. Both candidates have focused on interior municipalities ahead of the October vote, with no decisive late shifts altering the closely contested dynamics reflected in trader pricing.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$150,608End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), the incumbent seeking re-election, leads the Bahia governor market at 61.5% implied probability, with ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 39%. Recent polling from late August and early September shows a technical tie or narrow margins in first- and second-round scenarios, reflecting a competitive race shaped by PT's long hold on the governorship since 2007 and Jerônimo's incumbency resources. ACM Neto, a former Salvador mayor from a prominent political family, has emphasized infrastructure critiques and logged extensive campaign travel. Both candidates have focused on interior municipalities ahead of the October vote, with no decisive late shifts altering the closely contested dynamics reflected in trader pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions