Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor seeking re-election after assuming office following João Azevêdo’s April 2026 resignation, leads the Paraíba gubernatorial race with 38% in the latest Quaest poll (August 21–24), ahead of Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 19% and Efraim Filho (PL) at 18%. Trader pricing reflects this gap, driven by Ribeiro’s incumbency advantages, ongoing campaign visibility through regional agendas and business meetings, and voter preference for continuity or partial adjustments in state governance. The first-round vote on October 4 could advance a runoff on October 25, though current polling and coalition positioning favor Ribeiro’s position. Other registered candidates trail significantly in both surveys and implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLucas Ribeiro 79%
Cícero Lucena 16%
Efraim Filho 6%
Veneziano Vital do Rêgo <1%
$57,242 Vol.
$57,242 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lucas Ribeiro
79%
Cícero Lucena
16%
Efraim Filho
6%
Veneziano Vital do Rêgo
1%
Flávio Lúcio
1%
Nilvan Ferreira
1%
Romero Rodrigues
<1%
Marcelo Queiroga
<1%
Lucas Ribeiro 79%
Cícero Lucena 16%
Efraim Filho 6%
Veneziano Vital do Rêgo <1%
$57,242 Vol.
$57,242 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lucas Ribeiro
$16,837 Vol.
79%
Cícero Lucena
$18,237 Vol.
16%
Efraim Filho
$13,293 Vol.
6%
Veneziano Vital do Rêgo
$2,395 Vol.
1%
Flávio Lúcio
$841 Vol.
1%
Nilvan Ferreira
$843 Vol.
1%
Romero Rodrigues
$1,469 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Queiroga
$3,327 Vol.
<1%
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor seeking re-election after assuming office following João Azevêdo’s April 2026 resignation, leads the Paraíba gubernatorial race with 38% in the latest Quaest poll (August 21–24), ahead of Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 19% and Efraim Filho (PL) at 18%. Trader pricing reflects this gap, driven by Ribeiro’s incumbency advantages, ongoing campaign visibility through regional agendas and business meetings, and voter preference for continuity or partial adjustments in state governance. The first-round vote on October 4 could advance a runoff on October 25, though current polling and coalition positioning favor Ribeiro’s position. Other registered candidates trail significantly in both surveys and implied probabilities.
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$57,242End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor seeking re-election after assuming office following João Azevêdo’s April 2026 resignation, leads the Paraíba gubernatorial race with 38% in the latest Quaest poll (August 21–24), ahead of Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 19% and Efraim Filho (PL) at 18%. Trader pricing reflects this gap, driven by Ribeiro’s incumbency advantages, ongoing campaign visibility through regional agendas and business meetings, and voter preference for continuity or partial adjustments in state governance. The first-round vote on October 4 could advance a runoff on October 25, though current polling and coalition positioning favor Ribeiro’s position. Other registered candidates trail significantly in both surveys and implied probabilities.
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$57,242End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor seeking re-election after assuming office following João Azevêdo’s April 2026 resignation, leads the Paraíba gubernatorial race with 38% in the latest Quaest poll (August 21–24), ahead of Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 19% and Efraim Filho (PL) at 18%. Trader pricing reflects this gap, driven by Ribeiro’s incumbency advantages, ongoing campaign visibility through regional agendas and business meetings, and voter preference for continuity or partial adjustments in state governance. The first-round vote on October 4 could advance a runoff on October 25, though current polling and coalition positioning favor Ribeiro’s position. Other registered candidates trail significantly in both surveys and implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions