Daniel Gobeil, the Liberal candidate and former dairy producers’ association president with deep local agricultural roots in La Baie, leads the Chicoutimi—Le Fjord federal by-election market at 83 percent. Recent constituency polls from late August show him ahead of Bloc Québécois nominee Caroline Dubé by narrow margins of 2–5 points, with both in the high 30s to low 40s and Conservative Régis Gaudreault well behind at around 15–17 percent. Traders appear to price in Gobeil’s name recognition on supply-management and trade issues, the riding’s shift after the Conservative incumbent’s Senate appointment, and Liberal organizational advantages in a low-turnout by-election on August 31. Dubé draws on the Bloc’s traditional regional strength but trails in current surveys, while minor-party candidates and “other” options trade near 50 percent or lower amid limited polling support.