**Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern shows the AfD maintaining a consistent lead of roughly 7 percentage points over the SPD ahead of the September 20, 2026, Landtag election.** Surveys from INSA (mid-August) and Infratest dimap (early July) place the AfD at 36 percent and the SPD at 29 percent, with the Left at 11-12 percent, the CDU at 9-10 percent, and smaller parties near or below the 5 percent threshold. This gap has held steady for months, reflecting the AfD’s position as the strongest single party and driving the elevated market probability for an AfD win. The SPD, led by incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig, has narrowed the deficit modestly in the most recent readings and benefits from her personal popularity in direct-matchup questions. However, the governing SPD-Left coalition lacks a clear path to retaining its majority, while other parties remain too far behind to challenge for first place. No major events in the final weeks have altered the polling trajectory, leaving the AfD as the frontrunner for the largest share of seats under current conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
AfD 86%
SPD 14%
Linke <1%
FW <1%
$612,245 Vol.
$612,245 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
AfD
86%
SPD
14%
Linke
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU
<1%
Grüne
<1%
FDP
<1%
BSW
<1%
AfD 86%
SPD 14%
Linke <1%
FW <1%
$612,245 Vol.
$612,245 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
AfD
$139,168 Vol.
86%
SPD
$114,141 Vol.
14%
Linke
$27,668 Vol.
<1%
FW
$115,965 Vol.
<1%
CDU
$44,445 Vol.
<1%
Grüne
$71,444 Vol.
<1%
FDP
$77,089 Vol.
<1%
BSW
$22,326 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern shows the AfD maintaining a consistent lead of roughly 7 percentage points over the SPD ahead of the September 20, 2026, Landtag election.** Surveys from INSA (mid-August) and Infratest dimap (early July) place the AfD at 36 percent and the SPD at 29 percent, with the Left at 11-12 percent, the CDU at 9-10 percent, and smaller parties near or below the 5 percent threshold. This gap has held steady for months, reflecting the AfD’s position as the strongest single party and driving the elevated market probability for an AfD win.
The SPD, led by incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig, has narrowed the deficit modestly in the most recent readings and benefits from her personal popularity in direct-matchup questions. However, the governing SPD-Left coalition lacks a clear path to retaining its majority, while other parties remain too far behind to challenge for first place. No major events in the final weeks have altered the polling trajectory, leaving the AfD as the frontrunner for the largest share of seats under current conditions.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$612,245End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern shows the AfD maintaining a consistent lead of roughly 7 percentage points over the SPD ahead of the September 20, 2026, Landtag election.** Surveys from INSA (mid-August) and Infratest dimap (early July) place the AfD at 36 percent and the SPD at 29 percent, with the Left at 11-12 percent, the CDU at 9-10 percent, and smaller parties near or below the 5 percent threshold. This gap has held steady for months, reflecting the AfD’s position as the strongest single party and driving the elevated market probability for an AfD win.
The SPD, led by incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig, has narrowed the deficit modestly in the most recent readings and benefits from her personal popularity in direct-matchup questions. However, the governing SPD-Left coalition lacks a clear path to retaining its majority, while other parties remain too far behind to challenge for first place. No major events in the final weeks have altered the polling trajectory, leaving the AfD as the frontrunner for the largest share of seats under current conditions.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$612,245End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern shows the AfD maintaining a consistent lead of roughly 7 percentage points over the SPD ahead of the September 20, 2026, Landtag election.** Surveys from INSA (mid-August) and Infratest dimap (early July) place the AfD at 36 percent and the SPD at 29 percent, with the Left at 11-12 percent, the CDU at 9-10 percent, and smaller parties near or below the 5 percent threshold. This gap has held steady for months, reflecting the AfD’s position as the strongest single party and driving the elevated market probability for an AfD win. The SPD, led by incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig, has narrowed the deficit modestly in the most recent readings and benefits from her personal popularity in direct-matchup questions. However, the governing SPD-Left coalition lacks a clear path to retaining its majority, while other parties remain too far behind to challenge for first place. No major events in the final weeks have altered the polling trajectory, leaving the AfD as the frontrunner for the largest share of seats under current conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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