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World·Samoa

Vaimauga 3 By-Election Winner

icon for Vaimauga 3 By-Election Winner
World·Samoa

Vaimauga 3 By-Election Winner

Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia 43%

Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni 43%

Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo 43%

Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo 43%

Polymarket
NEW

Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia 43%

Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni 43%

Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo 43%

Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo 43%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia

Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni

Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo

Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo

Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo

$0 Vol.

43%

A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Vaimauga 3 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).The court ruling invalidating the May 2026 Vaimauga 3 by-election results due to corrupt practices by both the FAST candidate Taioaliʻiseu Fiti Aimaʻasu and independent winner Lautimuia Uelese Vaʻai has reset the contest under Samoa’s Electoral Act provisions on party-switching and electoral petitions. With the seat now vacant again ahead of a fresh poll, trader odds remain tightly clustered near even money across a broad field of independents and party nominees. Key factors sustaining the deadlock include the absence of a dominant frontrunner, lingering effects of prior party-hopping dynamics between FAST and HRPP, and local priorities such as constituency development funding. Upcoming candidate nominations, campaign spending disclosures, and any further court rulings could shift probabilities by clarifying the viable contenders.

A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Vaimauga 3 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa.

If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
Volume
$0
End Date
Sep 18, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Vaimauga 3 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Vaimauga 3 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).The court ruling invalidating the May 2026 Vaimauga 3 by-election results due to corrupt practices by both the FAST candidate Taioaliʻiseu Fiti Aimaʻasu and independent winner Lautimuia Uelese Vaʻai has reset the contest under Samoa’s Electoral Act provisions on party-switching and electoral petitions. With the seat now vacant again ahead of a fresh poll, trader odds remain tightly clustered near even money across a broad field of independents and party nominees. Key factors sustaining the deadlock include the absence of a dominant frontrunner, lingering effects of prior party-hopping dynamics between FAST and HRPP, and local priorities such as constituency development funding. Upcoming candidate nominations, campaign spending disclosures, and any further court rulings could shift probabilities by clarifying the viable contenders.

A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Vaimauga 3 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa.

If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
Volume
$0
End Date
Sep 18, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Vaimauga 3 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Vaimauga 3 By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia" at 44%, followed by "Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni" at 44%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vaimauga 3 By-Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vaimauga 3 By-Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vaimauga 3 By-Election Winner" is "Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni" at 44%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vaimauga 3 By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.