Russia's Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko's federal party list from the September 20, 2026 State Duma ballot on August 10 after a Rodina party lawsuit citing copyright and other violations, with the final appeal rejected shortly thereafter. This bars the liberal, anti-war party from competing in the proportional representation component that determines the 5% threshold for seats. Yabloko has not cleared that threshold since 1999 and typically polls near 1-2% amid longstanding administrative restrictions on opposition parties. Even recent independent surveys showing modest urban support gains occurred before the ruling, while state-aligned polling placed the party far lower. The confirmed exclusion weeks before voting, combined with limited single-member constituency options and historical patterns of electoral controls, underpins the near-certain trader consensus on "No." Reversal would require an unprecedented late intervention not indicated by current procedural timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRussia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
1% chance
$298,194 Vol.
$298,194 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
1% chance
$298,194 Vol.
$298,194 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Russia's Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko's federal party list from the September 20, 2026 State Duma ballot on August 10 after a Rodina party lawsuit citing copyright and other violations, with the final appeal rejected shortly thereafter. This bars the liberal, anti-war party from competing in the proportional representation component that determines the 5% threshold for seats. Yabloko has not cleared that threshold since 1999 and typically polls near 1-2% amid longstanding administrative restrictions on opposition parties. Even recent independent surveys showing modest urban support gains occurred before the ruling, while state-aligned polling placed the party far lower. The confirmed exclusion weeks before voting, combined with limited single-member constituency options and historical patterns of electoral controls, underpins the near-certain trader consensus on "No." Reversal would require an unprecedented late intervention not indicated by current procedural timelines.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ET
Volume
$298,194End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Russia's Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko's federal party list from the September 20, 2026 State Duma ballot on August 10 after a Rodina party lawsuit citing copyright and other violations, with the final appeal rejected shortly thereafter. This bars the liberal, anti-war party from competing in the proportional representation component that determines the 5% threshold for seats. Yabloko has not cleared that threshold since 1999 and typically polls near 1-2% amid longstanding administrative restrictions on opposition parties. Even recent independent surveys showing modest urban support gains occurred before the ruling, while state-aligned polling placed the party far lower. The confirmed exclusion weeks before voting, combined with limited single-member constituency options and historical patterns of electoral controls, underpins the near-certain trader consensus on "No." Reversal would require an unprecedented late intervention not indicated by current procedural timelines.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$298,194End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko's federal party list from the September 20, 2026 State Duma ballot on August 10 after a Rodina party lawsuit citing copyright and other violations, with the final appeal rejected shortly thereafter. This bars the liberal, anti-war party from competing in the proportional representation component that determines the 5% threshold for seats. Yabloko has not cleared that threshold since 1999 and typically polls near 1-2% amid longstanding administrative restrictions on opposition parties. Even recent independent surveys showing modest urban support gains occurred before the ruling, while state-aligned polling placed the party far lower. The confirmed exclusion weeks before voting, combined with limited single-member constituency options and historical patterns of electoral controls, underpins the near-certain trader consensus on "No." Reversal would require an unprecedented late intervention not indicated by current procedural timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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