Mike Derry, the United Conservative Party nominee, holds an 80.5% implied probability in the Calgary-Shaw by-election scheduled for September 14, 2026, reflecting the riding’s consistent UCP support since its creation and the party’s strong performance in the 2023 general election. Derry secured the nomination in June after defeating Calgary city councillor Dan McLean in a membership vote, earning Premier Danielle Smith’s endorsement and leveraging his oil-and-gas and human-resources background. The NDP’s Kyle Campbell, nominated shortly afterward, trails at 17% amid limited prospects in this suburban Calgary district. Minor candidates, including Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph and Liberal leader John Roggeveen, register negligible shares. The short campaign window following the August 17 writ and August 27 nominations has left little time for shifts, with models projecting Derry well above 50% vote share.