Recent polling from Datafolha, released September 11 after fieldwork from September 8–10, shows Marília Arraes (PDT) leading with 18% of consolidated vote intentions for Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at 16%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 12%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 10%, all within the three-point margin of error. Arraes, aligned with the Frente Popular coalition backing João Campos for governor, has posted modest gains in successive surveys. Humberto Costa, the sitting senator, and Mendonça Filho maintain competitive but trailing positions. With the October 4 first-round vote three weeks away and roughly 7.2 million eligible voters, traders appear to weigh Arraes’s consistent numerical edge and coalition support most heavily when pricing first-place probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarília Arraes 73%
Humberto Costa 16.8%
Mendonça Filho 5.8%
Eduardo da Fonte 4.2%
$30,698 Vol.
$30,698 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
73%
Humberto Costa
17%
Mendonça Filho
6%
Eduardo da Fonte
4%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Marília Arraes 73%
Humberto Costa 16.8%
Mendonça Filho 5.8%
Eduardo da Fonte 4.2%
$30,698 Vol.
$30,698 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
$15,276 Vol.
73%
Humberto Costa
$8,517 Vol.
17%
Mendonça Filho
$1,327 Vol.
6%
Eduardo da Fonte
$879 Vol.
4%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$624 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$634 Vol.
<1%
Gorett Bitu
$633 Vol.
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
$557 Vol.
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
$625 Vol.
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$575 Vol.
<1%
Mariano Macedo
$528 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$523 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Datafolha, released September 11 after fieldwork from September 8–10, shows Marília Arraes (PDT) leading with 18% of consolidated vote intentions for Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at 16%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 12%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 10%, all within the three-point margin of error. Arraes, aligned with the Frente Popular coalition backing João Campos for governor, has posted modest gains in successive surveys. Humberto Costa, the sitting senator, and Mendonça Filho maintain competitive but trailing positions. With the October 4 first-round vote three weeks away and roughly 7.2 million eligible voters, traders appear to weigh Arraes’s consistent numerical edge and coalition support most heavily when pricing first-place probabilities.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$30,698End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Datafolha, released September 11 after fieldwork from September 8–10, shows Marília Arraes (PDT) leading with 18% of consolidated vote intentions for Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at 16%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 12%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 10%, all within the three-point margin of error. Arraes, aligned with the Frente Popular coalition backing João Campos for governor, has posted modest gains in successive surveys. Humberto Costa, the sitting senator, and Mendonça Filho maintain competitive but trailing positions. With the October 4 first-round vote three weeks away and roughly 7.2 million eligible voters, traders appear to weigh Arraes’s consistent numerical edge and coalition support most heavily when pricing first-place probabilities.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$30,698End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Datafolha, released September 11 after fieldwork from September 8–10, shows Marília Arraes (PDT) leading with 18% of consolidated vote intentions for Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at 16%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 12%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 10%, all within the three-point margin of error. Arraes, aligned with the Frente Popular coalition backing João Campos for governor, has posted modest gains in successive surveys. Humberto Costa, the sitting senator, and Mendonça Filho maintain competitive but trailing positions. With the October 4 first-round vote three weeks away and roughly 7.2 million eligible voters, traders appear to weigh Arraes’s consistent numerical edge and coalition support most heavily when pricing first-place probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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