Recent polling in Tocantins shows incumbent Eduardo Gomes (PL) leading the two-seat Senate race, leaving a tight contest for second place among challengers. Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) and Gaguim (União) post the strongest numbers for that position across late-August surveys, often within margins of error amid 24-31% undecided voters and high vote fluidity. Gaguim’s candidacy received final electoral court approval on August 27, while the broader field remains fragmented with lower support for Ronaldo Dimas, Vanderlei Luxemburgo, Eli Borges, and others. Traders price the second-place outcome as competitive because recent estimates show Guimarães and Gaguim statistically tied or narrowly separated, with over half of respondents open to shifting preferences before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlexandre Guimarães 44%
Gaguim 35.4%
Eduardo Gomes 8.6%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo 6%
$24,490 Vol.
$24,490 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Guimarães
44%
Gaguim
35%
Eduardo Gomes
9%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
6%
Nilton Santos
6%
Ronaldo Dimas
6%
Paulo Mourão
3%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
3%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
3%
Fábio Ribeiro
1%
Eli Borges
1%
Osvany Luz
<1%
Professor Osvaldo
<1%
Alexandre Guimarães 44%
Gaguim 35.4%
Eduardo Gomes 8.6%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo 6%
$24,490 Vol.
$24,490 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Guimarães
$13,641 Vol.
44%
Gaguim
$2,643 Vol.
35%
Eduardo Gomes
$1,244 Vol.
9%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
$358 Vol.
6%
Nilton Santos
$318 Vol.
6%
Ronaldo Dimas
$307 Vol.
6%
Paulo Mourão
$4,045 Vol.
3%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
$273 Vol.
3%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
$307 Vol.
3%
Fábio Ribeiro
$273 Vol.
1%
Eli Borges
$461 Vol.
1%
Osvany Luz
$355 Vol.
<1%
Professor Osvaldo
$265 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Tocantins shows incumbent Eduardo Gomes (PL) leading the two-seat Senate race, leaving a tight contest for second place among challengers. Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) and Gaguim (União) post the strongest numbers for that position across late-August surveys, often within margins of error amid 24-31% undecided voters and high vote fluidity. Gaguim’s candidacy received final electoral court approval on August 27, while the broader field remains fragmented with lower support for Ronaldo Dimas, Vanderlei Luxemburgo, Eli Borges, and others. Traders price the second-place outcome as competitive because recent estimates show Guimarães and Gaguim statistically tied or narrowly separated, with over half of respondents open to shifting preferences before the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$24,490End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Tocantins shows incumbent Eduardo Gomes (PL) leading the two-seat Senate race, leaving a tight contest for second place among challengers. Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) and Gaguim (União) post the strongest numbers for that position across late-August surveys, often within margins of error amid 24-31% undecided voters and high vote fluidity. Gaguim’s candidacy received final electoral court approval on August 27, while the broader field remains fragmented with lower support for Ronaldo Dimas, Vanderlei Luxemburgo, Eli Borges, and others. Traders price the second-place outcome as competitive because recent estimates show Guimarães and Gaguim statistically tied or narrowly separated, with over half of respondents open to shifting preferences before the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$24,490End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in Tocantins shows incumbent Eduardo Gomes (PL) leading the two-seat Senate race, leaving a tight contest for second place among challengers. Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) and Gaguim (União) post the strongest numbers for that position across late-August surveys, often within margins of error amid 24-31% undecided voters and high vote fluidity. Gaguim’s candidacy received final electoral court approval on August 27, while the broader field remains fragmented with lower support for Ronaldo Dimas, Vanderlei Luxemburgo, Eli Borges, and others. Traders price the second-place outcome as competitive because recent estimates show Guimarães and Gaguim statistically tied or narrowly separated, with over half of respondents open to shifting preferences before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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