Recent August polls from Quaest and Datafolha show Marília Arraes (PDT) leading numerically for one of Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, while the second remains tightly contested among Humberto Costa (PT, seeking re-election), Mendonça Filho (PL), and Eduardo da Fonte (PP), all within margins of error amid 24-26% undecided or blank votes. High indecision and the dual-vote system sustain close probabilities for second place, with Costa and Mendonça Filho holding the strongest positioning per trader consensus. Recent campaign focus on health policy and alliances tied to gubernatorial candidates João Campos and Raquel Lyra have kept the field fluid without decisive shifts. Upcoming debates, further polling releases, and coalition consolidation before October could widen gaps among these contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHumberto Costa 39%
Mendonça Filho 32%
Marília Arraes 22.1%
Eduardo da Fonte 7.2%
$24,304 Vol.
$24,304 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Humberto Costa
39%
Mendonça Filho
32%
Marília Arraes
22%
Eduardo da Fonte
7%
Túlio Gadêlha
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
Humberto Costa 39%
Mendonça Filho 32%
Marília Arraes 22.1%
Eduardo da Fonte 7.2%
$24,304 Vol.
$24,304 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Humberto Costa
$8,801 Vol.
39%
Mendonça Filho
$5,433 Vol.
32%
Marília Arraes
$4,440 Vol.
22%
Eduardo da Fonte
$927 Vol.
7%
Túlio Gadêlha
$688 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$659 Vol.
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
$664 Vol.
<1%
Mariano Macedo
$647 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$494 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$490 Vol.
<1%
Gorett Bitu
$629 Vol.
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$433 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent August polls from Quaest and Datafolha show Marília Arraes (PDT) leading numerically for one of Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, while the second remains tightly contested among Humberto Costa (PT, seeking re-election), Mendonça Filho (PL), and Eduardo da Fonte (PP), all within margins of error amid 24-26% undecided or blank votes. High indecision and the dual-vote system sustain close probabilities for second place, with Costa and Mendonça Filho holding the strongest positioning per trader consensus. Recent campaign focus on health policy and alliances tied to gubernatorial candidates João Campos and Raquel Lyra have kept the field fluid without decisive shifts. Upcoming debates, further polling releases, and coalition consolidation before October could widen gaps among these contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Volume
$24,304End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent August polls from Quaest and Datafolha show Marília Arraes (PDT) leading numerically for one of Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, while the second remains tightly contested among Humberto Costa (PT, seeking re-election), Mendonça Filho (PL), and Eduardo da Fonte (PP), all within margins of error amid 24-26% undecided or blank votes. High indecision and the dual-vote system sustain close probabilities for second place, with Costa and Mendonça Filho holding the strongest positioning per trader consensus. Recent campaign focus on health policy and alliances tied to gubernatorial candidates João Campos and Raquel Lyra have kept the field fluid without decisive shifts. Upcoming debates, further polling releases, and coalition consolidation before October could widen gaps among these contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$24,304End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August polls from Quaest and Datafolha show Marília Arraes (PDT) leading numerically for one of Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, while the second remains tightly contested among Humberto Costa (PT, seeking re-election), Mendonça Filho (PL), and Eduardo da Fonte (PP), all within margins of error amid 24-26% undecided or blank votes. High indecision and the dual-vote system sustain close probabilities for second place, with Costa and Mendonça Filho holding the strongest positioning per trader consensus. Recent campaign focus on health policy and alliances tied to gubernatorial candidates João Campos and Raquel Lyra have kept the field fluid without decisive shifts. Upcoming debates, further polling releases, and coalition consolidation before October could widen gaps among these contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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