Lula's commanding position in Alagoas reflects sustained regional strength in Brazil's Northeast, where the president maintains a consistent polling lead of roughly 15 points over Flávio Bolsonaro in recent state surveys. Government approval at 52% in the state underpins voter preferences ahead of the first-round contest. Flávio Bolsonaro's recent campaign visits and alliances with local PL figures have yet to close the gap, as other candidates remain fragmented below 3%. Trader consensus around 96% for Lula first place aligns with these patterns, though shifts could arise from national economic developments, evolving state-level alliances ahead of October voting, or unexpected turnout changes among undecided voters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 96.4%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.1%
Hertz Dias <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$12,404 Vol.
$12,404 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 96.4%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.1%
Hertz Dias <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$12,404 Vol.
$12,404 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$6,979 Vol.
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$506 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$476 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$503 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$476 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$476 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$338 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$476 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$476 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$476 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$348 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$476 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$396 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding position in Alagoas reflects sustained regional strength in Brazil's Northeast, where the president maintains a consistent polling lead of roughly 15 points over Flávio Bolsonaro in recent state surveys. Government approval at 52% in the state underpins voter preferences ahead of the first-round contest. Flávio Bolsonaro's recent campaign visits and alliances with local PL figures have yet to close the gap, as other candidates remain fragmented below 3%. Trader consensus around 96% for Lula first place aligns with these patterns, though shifts could arise from national economic developments, evolving state-level alliances ahead of October voting, or unexpected turnout changes among undecided voters.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ET
Volume
$12,404End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding position in Alagoas reflects sustained regional strength in Brazil's Northeast, where the president maintains a consistent polling lead of roughly 15 points over Flávio Bolsonaro in recent state surveys. Government approval at 52% in the state underpins voter preferences ahead of the first-round contest. Flávio Bolsonaro's recent campaign visits and alliances with local PL figures have yet to close the gap, as other candidates remain fragmented below 3%. Trader consensus around 96% for Lula first place aligns with these patterns, though shifts could arise from national economic developments, evolving state-level alliances ahead of October voting, or unexpected turnout changes among undecided voters.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$12,404End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula's commanding position in Alagoas reflects sustained regional strength in Brazil's Northeast, where the president maintains a consistent polling lead of roughly 15 points over Flávio Bolsonaro in recent state surveys. Government approval at 52% in the state underpins voter preferences ahead of the first-round contest. Flávio Bolsonaro's recent campaign visits and alliances with local PL figures have yet to close the gap, as other candidates remain fragmented below 3%. Trader consensus around 96% for Lula first place aligns with these patterns, though shifts could arise from national economic developments, evolving state-level alliances ahead of October voting, or unexpected turnout changes among undecided voters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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