Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 29°C high on August 31 reflects the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily maximum observation at its headquarters, the resolution standard for this market. Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and a broad low-pressure trough over the South China Sea suppressed daytime heating, keeping temperatures below the extreme values seen earlier in August when southerly flow and subsidence produced the record 36.9°C peak. With minimal solar insolation and high humidity limiting surface warming, the observed maximum aligned precisely with 29°C. Realistic challenges to this outcome remain narrow and include any post-day revision to the preliminary HKO reading or use of an alternative station network, though both are improbable given the tight observational window and established resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 31?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 31?
29°C 56.8%
30°C 44.0%
31°C 3.0%
32°C 2.0%
$120,426 Vol.
$120,426 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
57%
30°C
44%
31°C
3%
32°C
2%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 56.8%
30°C 44.0%
31°C 3.0%
32°C 2.0%
$120,426 Vol.
$120,426 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
24°C or below
$1,188 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$268 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,552 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$5,197 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$16,735 Vol.
1%
29°C
$45,208 Vol.
57%
30°C
$17,942 Vol.
44%
31°C
$14,067 Vol.
3%
32°C
$10,498 Vol.
2%
33°C
$6,804 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$966 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 29°C high on August 31 reflects the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily maximum observation at its headquarters, the resolution standard for this market. Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and a broad low-pressure trough over the South China Sea suppressed daytime heating, keeping temperatures below the extreme values seen earlier in August when southerly flow and subsidence produced the record 36.9°C peak. With minimal solar insolation and high humidity limiting surface warming, the observed maximum aligned precisely with 29°C. Realistic challenges to this outcome remain narrow and include any post-day revision to the preliminary HKO reading or use of an alternative station network, though both are improbable given the tight observational window and established resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$120,426End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 29°C high on August 31 reflects the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily maximum observation at its headquarters, the resolution standard for this market. Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and a broad low-pressure trough over the South China Sea suppressed daytime heating, keeping temperatures below the extreme values seen earlier in August when southerly flow and subsidence produced the record 36.9°C peak. With minimal solar insolation and high humidity limiting surface warming, the observed maximum aligned precisely with 29°C. Realistic challenges to this outcome remain narrow and include any post-day revision to the preliminary HKO reading or use of an alternative station network, though both are improbable given the tight observational window and established resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$120,426End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 29°C high on August 31 reflects the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily maximum observation at its headquarters, the resolution standard for this market. Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and a broad low-pressure trough over the South China Sea suppressed daytime heating, keeping temperatures below the extreme values seen earlier in August when southerly flow and subsidence produced the record 36.9°C peak. With minimal solar insolation and high humidity limiting surface warming, the observed maximum aligned precisely with 29°C. Realistic challenges to this outcome remain narrow and include any post-day revision to the preliminary HKO reading or use of an alternative station network, though both are improbable given the tight observational window and established resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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