Marcelo Castro (MDB) holds the strongest position in the race for first place in Piauí’s 2026 Senate election, reflecting consistent leads or ties in recent polling for the top vote-getter slot. Multiple surveys from June through September, including AtlasIntel and Amostragem, have shown him ahead or level with Ciro Nogueira (PP) and Júlio César (PSD) in first-preference or consolidated voting scenarios, supported by lower rejection rates and alignment with the state’s governing coalition. Ciro Nogueira trails in implied probability despite competitive totals in the latest Datafolha poll, where the top three remain within the margin of error. Júlio César registers lower support for the leading position. The two-seat system and high undecided or blank responses keep the contest fluid, with trader pricing tracking these polling patterns and the limited movement in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarcelo Castro 52%
Ciro Nogueira 28%
Julio Cesar 16.0%
Alexandre Mariano <1%
$39,794 Vol.
$39,794 Vol.
Marcelo Castro
59%
Ciro Nogueira
28%
Julio Cesar
10%
Alexandre Mariano
<1%
Antônio Barros
<1%
Antônio José Lira
<1%
Cloves José
<1%
Danniel Rocha
<1%
Dionisio Carvalho
<1%
Francinaldo Leão
<1%
Irmão Evandro Marques
<1%
Jardenya Bezerra
<1%
Jorge Lopes
<1%
Major Paulo Roberto
<1%
Maria Madalena Nunes
<1%
Missionário Evandro Craveiro
<1%
Pastor Sena
<1%
Pedro Laurentino
<1%
Tiago Junqueira
<1%
Toinho Dufrango
<1%
Marcelo Castro 52%
Ciro Nogueira 28%
Julio Cesar 16.0%
Alexandre Mariano <1%
$39,794 Vol.
$39,794 Vol.
Marcelo Castro
59%
Ciro Nogueira
28%
Julio Cesar
10%
Alexandre Mariano
<1%
Antônio Barros
<1%
Antônio José Lira
<1%
Cloves José
<1%
Danniel Rocha
<1%
Dionisio Carvalho
<1%
Francinaldo Leão
<1%
Irmão Evandro Marques
<1%
Jardenya Bezerra
<1%
Jorge Lopes
<1%
Major Paulo Roberto
<1%
Maria Madalena Nunes
<1%
Missionário Evandro Craveiro
<1%
Pastor Sena
<1%
Pedro Laurentino
<1%
Tiago Junqueira
<1%
Toinho Dufrango
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:05 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Marcelo Castro (MDB) holds the strongest position in the race for first place in Piauí’s 2026 Senate election, reflecting consistent leads or ties in recent polling for the top vote-getter slot. Multiple surveys from June through September, including AtlasIntel and Amostragem, have shown him ahead or level with Ciro Nogueira (PP) and Júlio César (PSD) in first-preference or consolidated voting scenarios, supported by lower rejection rates and alignment with the state’s governing coalition. Ciro Nogueira trails in implied probability despite competitive totals in the latest Datafolha poll, where the top three remain within the margin of error. Júlio César registers lower support for the leading position. The two-seat system and high undecided or blank responses keep the contest fluid, with trader pricing tracking these polling patterns and the limited movement in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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