Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 Max release has driven its market-implied 51.5% odds for second place in Code Arena WebDev by late November, after the model posted leading scores above 1765 on the crowdsourced Elo-style leaderboard for agentic frontend and full-stack tasks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra briefly held the top spot in early September with 1797 points before slipping, leaving a narrow gap that traders view as reversible given rapid iteration cycles. Chinese labs including Alibaba’s Qwen variants, Moonshot Kimi, and Z.ai GLM models cluster tightly in the 1600–1690 range on the same Pareto frontier, benefiting from strong price-performance on multi-step web development workflows. Key swing factors include any new capability demonstrations or benchmark shifts before November, as historical release patterns show coding arenas can reorder quickly on incremental post-training gains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 52%
OpenAI 24%
Google 13%
Alibaba 8.0%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
52%
OpenAI
24%
13%
Alibaba
8%
Meta
8%
Poolside
7%
DeepSeek
6%
Z.ai
4%
MiniMax
4%
ByteDance
4%
SpaceXAI
2%
Moonshot
2%
Xiaomi
2%
Tencent
1%
Thinky
1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 52%
OpenAI 24%
Google 13%
Alibaba 8.0%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
$1,400 Vol.
52%
OpenAI
$1,525 Vol.
24%
$492 Vol.
13%
Alibaba
$114 Vol.
8%
Meta
$209 Vol.
8%
Poolside
$107 Vol.
7%
DeepSeek
$91 Vol.
6%
Z.ai
$107 Vol.
4%
MiniMax
$119 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$212 Vol.
4%
SpaceXAI
$107 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$108 Vol.
2%
Xiaomi
$266 Vol.
2%
Tencent
$111 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$117 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$265 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 Max release has driven its market-implied 51.5% odds for second place in Code Arena WebDev by late November, after the model posted leading scores above 1765 on the crowdsourced Elo-style leaderboard for agentic frontend and full-stack tasks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra briefly held the top spot in early September with 1797 points before slipping, leaving a narrow gap that traders view as reversible given rapid iteration cycles. Chinese labs including Alibaba’s Qwen variants, Moonshot Kimi, and Z.ai GLM models cluster tightly in the 1600–1690 range on the same Pareto frontier, benefiting from strong price-performance on multi-step web development workflows. Key swing factors include any new capability demonstrations or benchmark shifts before November, as historical release patterns show coding arenas can reorder quickly on incremental post-training gains.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:13 PM ET
Volume
$5,351End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 Max release has driven its market-implied 51.5% odds for second place in Code Arena WebDev by late November, after the model posted leading scores above 1765 on the crowdsourced Elo-style leaderboard for agentic frontend and full-stack tasks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra briefly held the top spot in early September with 1797 points before slipping, leaving a narrow gap that traders view as reversible given rapid iteration cycles. Chinese labs including Alibaba’s Qwen variants, Moonshot Kimi, and Z.ai GLM models cluster tightly in the 1600–1690 range on the same Pareto frontier, benefiting from strong price-performance on multi-step web development workflows. Key swing factors include any new capability demonstrations or benchmark shifts before November, as historical release patterns show coding arenas can reorder quickly on incremental post-training gains.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$5,351End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 Max release has driven its market-implied 51.5% odds for second place in Code Arena WebDev by late November, after the model posted leading scores above 1765 on the crowdsourced Elo-style leaderboard for agentic frontend and full-stack tasks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra briefly held the top spot in early September with 1797 points before slipping, leaving a narrow gap that traders view as reversible given rapid iteration cycles. Chinese labs including Alibaba’s Qwen variants, Moonshot Kimi, and Z.ai GLM models cluster tightly in the 1600–1690 range on the same Pareto frontier, benefiting from strong price-performance on multi-step web development workflows. Key swing factors include any new capability demonstrations or benchmark shifts before November, as historical release patterns show coding arenas can reorder quickly on incremental post-training gains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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