The top-two primary in June 2026 advanced incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones to the November general election in California's 4th congressional district, creating an all-Democratic matchup after Republican candidates split the remaining vote and failed to advance. Forecasters rate the redrawn district as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with its partisan lean and Thompson's prior reelection margins exceeding 60 percent. Thompson holds institutional advantages including party endorsements, union support, and long tenure, while Jones has self-funded heavily but operates within the same party lane. Trader consensus at 96 percent for the Democratic Party aligns with this structural outcome, where the winner's party affiliation is predetermined absent extraordinary developments such as candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or election postponement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$13,721 Vol.
$13,721 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
96%
Parti républicain
3%
$13,721 Vol.
$13,721 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$5,915 Vol.
96%
Parti républicain
$7,806 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The top-two primary in June 2026 advanced incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones to the November general election in California's 4th congressional district, creating an all-Democratic matchup after Republican candidates split the remaining vote and failed to advance. Forecasters rate the redrawn district as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with its partisan lean and Thompson's prior reelection margins exceeding 60 percent. Thompson holds institutional advantages including party endorsements, union support, and long tenure, while Jones has self-funded heavily but operates within the same party lane. Trader consensus at 96 percent for the Democratic Party aligns with this structural outcome, where the winner's party affiliation is predetermined absent extraordinary developments such as candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or election postponement.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$13,721Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The top-two primary in June 2026 advanced incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones to the November general election in California's 4th congressional district, creating an all-Democratic matchup after Republican candidates split the remaining vote and failed to advance. Forecasters rate the redrawn district as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with its partisan lean and Thompson's prior reelection margins exceeding 60 percent. Thompson holds institutional advantages including party endorsements, union support, and long tenure, while Jones has self-funded heavily but operates within the same party lane. Trader consensus at 96 percent for the Democratic Party aligns with this structural outcome, where the winner's party affiliation is predetermined absent extraordinary developments such as candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or election postponement.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,721Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...The top-two primary in June 2026 advanced incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones to the November general election in California's 4th congressional district, creating an all-Democratic matchup after Republican candidates split the remaining vote and failed to advance. Forecasters rate the redrawn district as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with its partisan lean and Thompson's prior reelection margins exceeding 60 percent. Thompson holds institutional advantages including party endorsements, union support, and long tenure, while Jones has self-funded heavily but operates within the same party lane. Trader consensus at 96 percent for the Democratic Party aligns with this structural outcome, where the winner's party affiliation is predetermined absent extraordinary developments such as candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or election postponement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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