Incumbent Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Partisan Voter Index and multiple forecasters' Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings. Harder advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 60 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, where John McBride placed second at roughly 23 percent. Harder's substantial fundraising edge, exceeding $3 million in the cycle compared to McBride's under $60,000, has supported broad voter outreach in a district spanning parts of San Joaquin and Contra Costa counties. Traders assign McBride just a 5.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical patterns for challengers in similarly structured seats. Late developments such as unexpected national political shifts or candidate-specific issues remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-09 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-09 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$20,593 Vol.
$20,593 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Josh Harder (D)
94%
John McBride (R)
6%
$20,593 Vol.
$20,593 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Josh Harder (D)
$13,285 Vol.
94%
John McBride (R)
$7,309 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Partisan Voter Index and multiple forecasters' Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings. Harder advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 60 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, where John McBride placed second at roughly 23 percent. Harder's substantial fundraising edge, exceeding $3 million in the cycle compared to McBride's under $60,000, has supported broad voter outreach in a district spanning parts of San Joaquin and Contra Costa counties. Traders assign McBride just a 5.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical patterns for challengers in similarly structured seats. Late developments such as unexpected national political shifts or candidate-specific issues remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$20,593Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Partisan Voter Index and multiple forecasters' Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings. Harder advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 60 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, where John McBride placed second at roughly 23 percent. Harder's substantial fundraising edge, exceeding $3 million in the cycle compared to McBride's under $60,000, has supported broad voter outreach in a district spanning parts of San Joaquin and Contra Costa counties. Traders assign McBride just a 5.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical patterns for challengers in similarly structured seats. Late developments such as unexpected national political shifts or candidate-specific issues remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$20,593Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Partisan Voter Index and multiple forecasters' Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings. Harder advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 60 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, where John McBride placed second at roughly 23 percent. Harder's substantial fundraising edge, exceeding $3 million in the cycle compared to McBride's under $60,000, has supported broad voter outreach in a district spanning parts of San Joaquin and Contra Costa counties. Traders assign McBride just a 5.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical patterns for challengers in similarly structured seats. Late developments such as unexpected national political shifts or candidate-specific issues remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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