Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding lead in the CA-13 House race, driven by his narrow 2024 victory that flipped the Central Valley seat, strong primary consolidation at 42 percent, and a redrawn district map favoring Democrats. Gray has outraised challenger Kevin Lincoln substantially and benefits from the district’s historical lean, with forecasts projecting a roughly 20-point margin. Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor and Trump-endorsed Republican, advanced from the June top-two primary but trails in resources and faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Lean or Tilt Democratic by multiple analysts. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, though late developments such as major scandals, health issues, or sharp turnout shifts could still alter the outcome before November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$16,049 Vol.
$16,049 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Adam Gray (D)
94%
Kevin Lincoln (R)
7%
$16,049 Vol.
$16,049 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Adam Gray (D)
$9,134 Vol.
94%
Kevin Lincoln (R)
$6,915 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding lead in the CA-13 House race, driven by his narrow 2024 victory that flipped the Central Valley seat, strong primary consolidation at 42 percent, and a redrawn district map favoring Democrats. Gray has outraised challenger Kevin Lincoln substantially and benefits from the district’s historical lean, with forecasts projecting a roughly 20-point margin. Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor and Trump-endorsed Republican, advanced from the June top-two primary but trails in resources and faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Lean or Tilt Democratic by multiple analysts. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, though late developments such as major scandals, health issues, or sharp turnout shifts could still alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
Volume
$16,049Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding lead in the CA-13 House race, driven by his narrow 2024 victory that flipped the Central Valley seat, strong primary consolidation at 42 percent, and a redrawn district map favoring Democrats. Gray has outraised challenger Kevin Lincoln substantially and benefits from the district’s historical lean, with forecasts projecting a roughly 20-point margin. Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor and Trump-endorsed Republican, advanced from the June top-two primary but trails in resources and faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Lean or Tilt Democratic by multiple analysts. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, though late developments such as major scandals, health issues, or sharp turnout shifts could still alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$16,049Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding lead in the CA-13 House race, driven by his narrow 2024 victory that flipped the Central Valley seat, strong primary consolidation at 42 percent, and a redrawn district map favoring Democrats. Gray has outraised challenger Kevin Lincoln substantially and benefits from the district’s historical lean, with forecasts projecting a roughly 20-point margin. Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor and Trump-endorsed Republican, advanced from the June top-two primary but trails in resources and faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Lean or Tilt Democratic by multiple analysts. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, though late developments such as major scandals, health issues, or sharp turnout shifts could still alter the outcome before November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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