Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes maintains a commanding position in the CT-04 race due to the district’s D+13 Partisan Voter Index, his consistent reelection margins including 61 percent in 2024, and substantial fundraising that reached over $1.3 million by mid-2026. Himes faced no Democratic primary opposition, while Republican nominee Michael Goldstein, a repeat challenger who won his August primary with 74 percent, has raised under $50,000 and previously lost to Himes by wide margins. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent probability for Himes aligns with these structural advantages. A realistic shift would require a major unforeseen event such as a significant scandal, health development, or national partisan wave strong enough to overcome the district’s established voting patterns before November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCT-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CT-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$47,531 Vol.
$47,531 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Jim Himes (D)
96%
Michael Goldstein (R)
4%
$47,531 Vol.
$47,531 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Jim Himes (D)
$21,869 Vol.
96%
Michael Goldstein (R)
$25,662 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes maintains a commanding position in the CT-04 race due to the district’s D+13 Partisan Voter Index, his consistent reelection margins including 61 percent in 2024, and substantial fundraising that reached over $1.3 million by mid-2026. Himes faced no Democratic primary opposition, while Republican nominee Michael Goldstein, a repeat challenger who won his August primary with 74 percent, has raised under $50,000 and previously lost to Himes by wide margins. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent probability for Himes aligns with these structural advantages. A realistic shift would require a major unforeseen event such as a significant scandal, health development, or national partisan wave strong enough to overcome the district’s established voting patterns before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$47,531Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes maintains a commanding position in the CT-04 race due to the district’s D+13 Partisan Voter Index, his consistent reelection margins including 61 percent in 2024, and substantial fundraising that reached over $1.3 million by mid-2026. Himes faced no Democratic primary opposition, while Republican nominee Michael Goldstein, a repeat challenger who won his August primary with 74 percent, has raised under $50,000 and previously lost to Himes by wide margins. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent probability for Himes aligns with these structural advantages. A realistic shift would require a major unforeseen event such as a significant scandal, health development, or national partisan wave strong enough to overcome the district’s established voting patterns before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,531Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes maintains a commanding position in the CT-04 race due to the district’s D+13 Partisan Voter Index, his consistent reelection margins including 61 percent in 2024, and substantial fundraising that reached over $1.3 million by mid-2026. Himes faced no Democratic primary opposition, while Republican nominee Michael Goldstein, a repeat challenger who won his August primary with 74 percent, has raised under $50,000 and previously lost to Himes by wide margins. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent probability for Himes aligns with these structural advantages. A realistic shift would require a major unforeseen event such as a significant scandal, health development, or national partisan wave strong enough to overcome the district’s established voting patterns before November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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