**Trader consensus on "No" at 96.4% reflects the limited pandemic potential of hantavirus, confirmed by the contained 2026 Andes virus outbreak.** The MV Hondius cluster produced only 13 cases and three deaths through May–July, with transmission limited to close, prolonged person-to-person contact rather than efficient aerosol spread. Official monitoring by the WHO, CDC, and ECDC tracked over 650 contacts across dozens of countries; all completed quarantine without secondary chains, and the outbreak was declared ended by early July with no sustained community transmission. Andes hantavirus remains the sole strain with documented human-to-human spread, yet its basic reproduction number drops below 1 under isolation. Normal U.S. surveillance through August 2026 shows typical low endemic activity. A realistic shift would require a major evolutionary change boosting transmissibility or an undetected large rodent-driven spillover, neither of which current genomic or epidemiological data support.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPandémie d'hantavirus en 2026 ?
Pandémie d'hantavirus en 2026 ?
Oui
4% chance
$17,985,220 Vol.
$17,985,220 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
4% chance
$17,985,220 Vol.
$17,985,220 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on "No" at 96.4% reflects the limited pandemic potential of hantavirus, confirmed by the contained 2026 Andes virus outbreak.** The MV Hondius cluster produced only 13 cases and three deaths through May–July, with transmission limited to close, prolonged person-to-person contact rather than efficient aerosol spread. Official monitoring by the WHO, CDC, and ECDC tracked over 650 contacts across dozens of countries; all completed quarantine without secondary chains, and the outbreak was declared ended by early July with no sustained community transmission. Andes hantavirus remains the sole strain with documented human-to-human spread, yet its basic reproduction number drops below 1 under isolation. Normal U.S. surveillance through August 2026 shows typical low endemic activity. A realistic shift would require a major evolutionary change boosting transmissibility or an undetected large rodent-driven spillover, neither of which current genomic or epidemiological data support.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volume
$17,985,220Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on "No" at 96.4% reflects the limited pandemic potential of hantavirus, confirmed by the contained 2026 Andes virus outbreak.** The MV Hondius cluster produced only 13 cases and three deaths through May–July, with transmission limited to close, prolonged person-to-person contact rather than efficient aerosol spread. Official monitoring by the WHO, CDC, and ECDC tracked over 650 contacts across dozens of countries; all completed quarantine without secondary chains, and the outbreak was declared ended by early July with no sustained community transmission. Andes hantavirus remains the sole strain with documented human-to-human spread, yet its basic reproduction number drops below 1 under isolation. Normal U.S. surveillance through August 2026 shows typical low endemic activity. A realistic shift would require a major evolutionary change boosting transmissibility or an undetected large rodent-driven spillover, neither of which current genomic or epidemiological data support.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$17,985,220Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on "No" at 96.4% reflects the limited pandemic potential of hantavirus, confirmed by the contained 2026 Andes virus outbreak.** The MV Hondius cluster produced only 13 cases and three deaths through May–July, with transmission limited to close, prolonged person-to-person contact rather than efficient aerosol spread. Official monitoring by the WHO, CDC, and ECDC tracked over 650 contacts across dozens of countries; all completed quarantine without secondary chains, and the outbreak was declared ended by early July with no sustained community transmission. Andes hantavirus remains the sole strain with documented human-to-human spread, yet its basic reproduction number drops below 1 under isolation. Normal U.S. surveillance through August 2026 shows typical low endemic activity. A realistic shift would require a major evolutionary change boosting transmissibility or an undetected large rodent-driven spillover, neither of which current genomic or epidemiological data support.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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