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Politique·Taïwan

Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Hsinchu

icon for Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Hsinchu
Politique·Taïwan

Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Hsinchu

Hsu Hsin-ying 83%

Cheng Chao-fang 17%

Lin Szu-ming <1%

Chen Chien-hsien <1%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Hsu Hsin-ying 83%

Cheng Chao-fang 17%

Lin Szu-ming <1%

Chen Chien-hsien <1%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU
icon for Hsu Hsin-ying

Hsu Hsin-ying

$2,329 Vol.

83%

icon for Cheng Chao-fang

Cheng Chao-fang

$1,978 Vol.

17%

icon for Lin Szu-ming

Lin Szu-ming

$354 Vol.

1%

icon for Chen Chien-hsien

Chen Chien-hsien

$292 Vol.

<1%

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).**Hsu Hsin-ying holds an 82.5% implied probability in the Hsinchu County Magistrate market, well ahead of DPP nominee Cheng Chao-fang at 17% and negligible shares for others such as Chen Chien-hsien.** She secured the KMT nomination in a March 2026 mixed primary (70% polling, 30% party-member vote) after edging deputy magistrate Chen Chien-hsien despite internal tensions. Cheng, nominated by the DPP in June with President Lai Ching-te’s involvement, draws strength from his Zhubei base and college-educated voters but trails in broader county surveys. The November 28, 2026, election occurs in a county with recent KMT dominance; Hsu’s established local network and geographic edge outside Zhubei underpin trader pricing, while low probabilities on independents or fringe candidates reflect limited expected vote-splitting or viability. Recent registration-period developments have not materially altered the positioning.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$4,953
Date de fin
28 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 8:53 AM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).**Hsu Hsin-ying holds an 82.5% implied probability in the Hsinchu County Magistrate market, well ahead of DPP nominee Cheng Chao-fang at 17% and negligible shares for others such as Chen Chien-hsien.** She secured the KMT nomination in a March 2026 mixed primary (70% polling, 30% party-member vote) after edging deputy magistrate Chen Chien-hsien despite internal tensions. Cheng, nominated by the DPP in June with President Lai Ching-te’s involvement, draws strength from his Zhubei base and college-educated voters but trails in broader county surveys. The November 28, 2026, election occurs in a county with recent KMT dominance; Hsu’s established local network and geographic edge outside Zhubei underpin trader pricing, while low probabilities on independents or fringe candidates reflect limited expected vote-splitting or viability. Recent registration-period developments have not materially altered the positioning.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$4,953
Date de fin
28 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 8:53 AM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Connexes

icon for Ann Kao remportera-t-elle la prochaine élection du maire de la ville de Hsinchu ?

Ann Kao remportera-t-elle la prochaine élection du maire de la ville de Hsinchu ?

87%
Oui
icon for Tsai Yi-yu va-t-il gagner la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Chiayi ?

Tsai Yi-yu va-t-il gagner la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Chiayi ?

91%
Oui
icon for Chang Chia-chun va-t-elle gagner la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Yunlin ?

Chang Chia-chun va-t-elle gagner la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Yunlin ?

84%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Hsinchu » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 4 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Hsu Hsin-ying » à 83%, suivi de « Cheng Chao-fang » à 17%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 83¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 83% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Hsinchu » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Aug 14, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Hsinchu », parcourez les 4 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Hsinchu » est « Hsu Hsin-ying » à 83%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 83% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Cheng Chao-fang » à 17%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Hsinchu » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.