Iranian forces have conducted multiple confirmed kinetic strikes and at least one seizure against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz throughout August 2026, including a projectile hit on the Liberia-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Dignity that killed its chief engineer on August 17-18 and the boarding and detention of the tanker Amara near Qeshm Island the same day. These actions follow earlier incidents in June and July and align with Iran's enforcement of transit rules via its Persian Gulf Strait Authority, including a late-August blacklist of 45 tankers threatening fines or confiscation. Ongoing volatility, combined with Houthi threats in the Red Sea and U.S. sanctions pressure, sustains trader expectations of further direct Iranian targeting of shipping before September 30, reflected in elevated yes probabilities for near-term resolution dates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'Iran cible avec succès l'expédition par... ?
L'Iran cible avec succès l'expédition par... ?
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
31 août
53%
$7,625 Vol.
31 août
$589 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Iranian forces have conducted multiple confirmed kinetic strikes and at least one seizure against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz throughout August 2026, including a projectile hit on the Liberia-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Dignity that killed its chief engineer on August 17-18 and the boarding and detention of the tanker Amara near Qeshm Island the same day. These actions follow earlier incidents in June and July and align with Iran's enforcement of transit rules via its Persian Gulf Strait Authority, including a late-August blacklist of 45 tankers threatening fines or confiscation. Ongoing volatility, combined with Houthi threats in the Red Sea and U.S. sanctions pressure, sustains trader expectations of further direct Iranian targeting of shipping before September 30, reflected in elevated yes probabilities for near-term resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Marché ouvert : Aug 24, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$7,625Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 24, 2026, 8:06 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Iranian forces have conducted multiple confirmed kinetic strikes and at least one seizure against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz throughout August 2026, including a projectile hit on the Liberia-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Dignity that killed its chief engineer on August 17-18 and the boarding and detention of the tanker Amara near Qeshm Island the same day. These actions follow earlier incidents in June and July and align with Iran's enforcement of transit rules via its Persian Gulf Strait Authority, including a late-August blacklist of 45 tankers threatening fines or confiscation. Ongoing volatility, combined with Houthi threats in the Red Sea and U.S. sanctions pressure, sustains trader expectations of further direct Iranian targeting of shipping before September 30, reflected in elevated yes probabilities for near-term resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$7,625Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 24, 2026, 8:06 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Iranian forces have conducted multiple confirmed kinetic strikes and at least one seizure against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz throughout August 2026, including a projectile hit on the Liberia-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Dignity that killed its chief engineer on August 17-18 and the boarding and detention of the tanker Amara near Qeshm Island the same day. These actions follow earlier incidents in June and July and align with Iran's enforcement of transit rules via its Persian Gulf Strait Authority, including a late-August blacklist of 45 tankers threatening fines or confiscation. Ongoing volatility, combined with Houthi threats in the Red Sea and U.S. sanctions pressure, sustains trader expectations of further direct Iranian targeting of shipping before September 30, reflected in elevated yes probabilities for near-term resolution dates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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