**Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in late August 2026, including strikes on Iranian rocket launchers near Larak Island and Iranian responses, have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained.** Visible daily crossings hover around 5–15 vessels (versus ~130 pre-war), with many using AIS-dark or shadow-fleet operations; throughput stands at roughly 4% of prior levels, and war-risk premiums remain ~40× normal, pricing most standard operators out. Brent crude has climbed back above $90/bbl (recently ~$90.50–91) on supply fears, reflecting the waterway’s role in ~20% of global oil and LNG trade pre-conflict. Iranian routing controls, blacklisting, and reported toll discussions, combined with mine risks and escort limitations, sustain high insurance and operational costs that suppress volumes. Limited recovery after the mid-June US-Iran MOU stalled after July escalations, leaving stranded vessels and rerouting dominant. With the September 30 horizon approaching, trader sentiment hinges on whether diplomacy (Iran-Oman corridor talks) or further kinetic incidents shift flows enough for a single-day spike meeting the market threshold. Recent data show modest upticks in dark transits and specific cargoes (e.g., Iraqi fuel oil), but visible commercial activity remains low amid elevated geopolitical risk.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour__ navires transiteront-ils dans le détroit d'Ormuz n'importe quel jour d'ici le 30 septembre ?
__ navires transiteront-ils dans le détroit d'Ormuz n'importe quel jour d'ici le 30 septembre ?
$11,723 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
10+
82%
20+
31%
30+
16%
40+
15%
50+
12%
$11,723 Vol.
10+
$11,279 Vol.
82%
20+
$282 Vol.
31%
30+
$71 Vol.
16%
40+
$15 Vol.
15%
50+
$76 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in late August 2026, including strikes on Iranian rocket launchers near Larak Island and Iranian responses, have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained.** Visible daily crossings hover around 5–15 vessels (versus ~130 pre-war), with many using AIS-dark or shadow-fleet operations; throughput stands at roughly 4% of prior levels, and war-risk premiums remain ~40× normal, pricing most standard operators out.
Brent crude has climbed back above $90/bbl (recently ~$90.50–91) on supply fears, reflecting the waterway’s role in ~20% of global oil and LNG trade pre-conflict. Iranian routing controls, blacklisting, and reported toll discussions, combined with mine risks and escort limitations, sustain high insurance and operational costs that suppress volumes. Limited recovery after the mid-June US-Iran MOU stalled after July escalations, leaving stranded vessels and rerouting dominant.
With the September 30 horizon approaching, trader sentiment hinges on whether diplomacy (Iran-Oman corridor talks) or further kinetic incidents shift flows enough for a single-day spike meeting the market threshold. Recent data show modest upticks in dark transits and specific cargoes (e.g., Iraqi fuel oil), but visible commercial activity remains low amid elevated geopolitical risk.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Marché ouvert : Aug 27, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
Volume
$11,723Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 6:57 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in late August 2026, including strikes on Iranian rocket launchers near Larak Island and Iranian responses, have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained.** Visible daily crossings hover around 5–15 vessels (versus ~130 pre-war), with many using AIS-dark or shadow-fleet operations; throughput stands at roughly 4% of prior levels, and war-risk premiums remain ~40× normal, pricing most standard operators out.
Brent crude has climbed back above $90/bbl (recently ~$90.50–91) on supply fears, reflecting the waterway’s role in ~20% of global oil and LNG trade pre-conflict. Iranian routing controls, blacklisting, and reported toll discussions, combined with mine risks and escort limitations, sustain high insurance and operational costs that suppress volumes. Limited recovery after the mid-June US-Iran MOU stalled after July escalations, leaving stranded vessels and rerouting dominant.
With the September 30 horizon approaching, trader sentiment hinges on whether diplomacy (Iran-Oman corridor talks) or further kinetic incidents shift flows enough for a single-day spike meeting the market threshold. Recent data show modest upticks in dark transits and specific cargoes (e.g., Iraqi fuel oil), but visible commercial activity remains low amid elevated geopolitical risk.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$11,723Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 6:57 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in late August 2026, including strikes on Iranian rocket launchers near Larak Island and Iranian responses, have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained.** Visible daily crossings hover around 5–15 vessels (versus ~130 pre-war), with many using AIS-dark or shadow-fleet operations; throughput stands at roughly 4% of prior levels, and war-risk premiums remain ~40× normal, pricing most standard operators out. Brent crude has climbed back above $90/bbl (recently ~$90.50–91) on supply fears, reflecting the waterway’s role in ~20% of global oil and LNG trade pre-conflict. Iranian routing controls, blacklisting, and reported toll discussions, combined with mine risks and escort limitations, sustain high insurance and operational costs that suppress volumes. Limited recovery after the mid-June US-Iran MOU stalled after July escalations, leaving stranded vessels and rerouting dominant. With the September 30 horizon approaching, trader sentiment hinges on whether diplomacy (Iran-Oman corridor talks) or further kinetic incidents shift flows enough for a single-day spike meeting the market threshold. Recent data show modest upticks in dark transits and specific cargoes (e.g., Iraqi fuel oil), but visible commercial activity remains low amid elevated geopolitical risk.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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