Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” stands as the clear market favorite for Best Country at the 2026 VMAs due to its record-shattering dominance on the Billboard Hot 100, where it has spent 22 weeks at No. 1 while claiming Song of the Summer honors. The track’s traditionalist country sound, co-written with Miranda Lambert, drove massive crossover streaming and radio success that outpaced other nominees like Kacey Musgraves’ “Dry Spell,” Shaboozey’s “Cowgirl,” and Lainey Wilson’s “Somewhere Over Laredo.” Its viral momentum, critical praise, and additional Song of the Year nomination have reinforced trader consensus ahead of the September 27 ceremony, where the video’s broad cultural resonance positions it to prevail in a category otherwise defined by solid but less dominant entries.