**Hezbollah has consistently rejected formal disarmament commitments, keeping implied probabilities for official leadership announcements by late 2026 near single digits.** A June 2026 U.S.-brokered trilateral framework links phased Israeli withdrawals from southern Lebanon to verified Lebanese Armed Forces control and removal of non-state weapons, yet Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem denounced the linkage as unacceptable and warned of resistance. The group has opposed Lebanese government plans for phased weapons collection south of the Litani and beyond, while the LAF reports incremental seizures and operational control in designated pilot zones. Israel continues targeted strikes and conditions further progress on stronger LAF performance, with October talks in Rome and the end of the UNIFIL mandate in December adding near-term pressure points. Traders price the low odds around the requirement for an explicit Hezbollah leadership statement rather than government initiatives or partial enforcement, reflecting the group's long-standing position on retaining independent military capabilities.

Apr 25 2026

Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a

April 30 rises to 4%4%

Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a brief rally to 4 % before the

Apr 23 2026

Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to

April 30 dips to 0%4%

Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to slide back to 0 %

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