Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July meeting

December Meeting drops to 14%6%

At the July 29, 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve again held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with a 9-3 vote. Some members preferred rate hikes, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about inflation and employment. The Fed signaled a higher bar for future rate changes, maintaining a cautious stance amid mixed economic data.

Federal Reserve maintains rates at July meeting with dissenting votes for hike

The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% at the July 28-29 meeting, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point increase. The committee reaffirmed its cautious stance amid ongoing inflation concerns.

Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged at July 2026 FOMC meeting despite dissent

December Meeting drops to 14%6%

At the July 28-29 meeting, the Fed maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike. The decision reflected ongoing concerns about inflation and labor market strength, further dampening expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

Chairman Warsh Presents Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress

December Meeting dips to 12%2%

Chairman Warsh presented the semiannual Monetary Policy Report, outlining the Fed’s views on economic conditions and monetary policy. This report influences market sentiment and investment strategies by providing insights into the Fed’s policy direction.

Federal Reserve Announces Leadership and Objectives of Task Forces to Advance Monetary Policy

December Meeting drops to 14%7%

The Federal Reserve announced the formation of task forces led by external advisers to improve monetary policy conduct. This initiative reflects the Fed's commitment to price stability and maximum employment, signaling ongoing efforts to refine policy tools amid economic uncertainties.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at June 16-17 meeting amid inflation concerns

December Meeting rises to 28%4%

At the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, citing ongoing elevated inflation and a stable labor market. The Fed's cautious stance and data-dependent approach kept market expectations for rate cuts low during this period.

Fed officials signal cautious approach amid mixed economic data and inflation concerns

December Meeting drops to 20%11%

Fed officials expressed a cautious stance on further rate cuts during mid-2026, highlighting mixed signals from labor market data and persistent inflation above target. This contributed to a decline in market expectations for rate cuts at upcoming meetings.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at June 2026 FOMC meeting amid rising inflation

December Meeting dips to 19%4%

The Fed held rates steady at the June 16-17 meeting, with new Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing the importance of data and signaling no immediate cuts despite inflation pressures. This reinforced market expectations for a pause in rate cuts through mid-2026.

April CPI surges to 3.8%, dashing hopes for Fed rate cuts in 2026

December Meeting dips to 11%4%

April's Consumer Price Index showed the highest inflation in three years, with broad-based increases including core CPI, leading the Fed to signal no rate cuts in 2026 and pushing market expectations for cuts sharply lower.

BofA and Goldman Sachs push back Fed rate-cut expectations citing inflation and jobs data

December Meeting plunges to 11%16%

In May 2026, major brokerages revised their forecasts, expecting the Fed to hold rates steady for the remainder of the year due to elevated inflation and a strong labor market, pushing anticipated rate cuts to late 2026 or 2027. This dampened market expectations for cuts in the analyzed window.

President Trump publicly urges Federal Reserve to convene emergency meeting to cut rates immediately

December Meeting plunges to 47%15%

Ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, former President Donald Trump called for an emergency Fed meeting to cut interest rates, increasing political pressure on the Fed. Despite this, the Fed maintained its independent stance and did not cut rates at the meeting, contributing to market uncertainty.

Federal Reserve Signals Policy Direction Following May 2026 Meeting

December Meeting plunges to 47%17%

The Fed's May 2026 meeting reinforced an adaptive monetary policy stance, emphasizing data dependency amid ongoing inflation concerns and labor market strength. Markets reacted to the Fed's cautious signals, which tempered expectations for imminent rate cuts.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid internal dissent

December Meeting rises to 63%1%

The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% on April 29, 2026, matching market expectations but revealing rare internal disagreement with four officials dissenting. Chair Jerome Powell confirmed his upcoming exit, adding uncertainty. The decision reflected caution amid persistent inflation and mixed economic signals.

Federal Reserve maintains rates at April 2026 FOMC meeting amid inflation and labor market concerns

December Meeting plunges to 47%15%

At the April 28-29 meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged, citing ongoing inflation above target and a strengthening labor market. The cautious tone and lack of cuts led to further declines in market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at March 2026 FOMC meeting despite calls for cuts

December Meeting plunges to 62%17%

The Fed held rates steady at the March 17-18 meeting, rejecting calls for emergency cuts and maintaining a cautious stance amid mixed economic data and inflation concerns. This decision contributed to a decline in market expectations for rate cuts at upcoming meetings.

FOMC holds rates steady amid rising inflation and economic uncertainty

December Meeting jumps to 27%5%

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the March 18 meeting, with inflation data showing a surge in energy prices due to the Iran war, reinforcing a 'higher-for-longer' rate outlook and diminishing near-term cut expectations.

FOMC Minutes Reveal Majority Support for Rate Hold Amid Solid Economic Expansion

Minutes from the March FOMC meeting showed most members supported holding rates steady, citing solid economic growth and inflation concerns. The minutes also indicated openness to future cuts if inflation progresses toward target, maintaining policy flexibility.

Former President Trump calls for emergency Fed meeting to cut rates immediately

December Meeting plunges to 62%15%

Ahead of the March 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, former President Donald Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to convene an emergency meeting to cut interest rates immediately, increasing political pressure on the Fed. Despite this, the Fed maintained its cautious stance and did not cut rates at this meeting.

FOMC Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% Amid Elevated Inflation and Geopolitical Uncertainty

December Meeting drops to 77%10%

At the March 17-18 meeting, the Federal Reserve voted 11-1 to keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical risks, particularly the Iran conflict, as reasons to pause further cuts. This reinforced the cautious approach and lowered market expectations for near-term easing.

Federal Reserve Votes 11-1 to Hold Rates Steady at March Meeting Amid Inflation Concerns

October Meeting plunges to 64%15%

The March 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in an 11-1 vote to maintain rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with one dissenting vote favoring a cut. The decision reflected concerns about inflation and geopolitical risks, reinforcing a cautious policy stance and influencing market expectations for rate cuts later in the year.

President Trump calls for emergency Federal Reserve meeting to cut rates immediately

December Meeting drops to 79%8%

Ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, former President Donald Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to convene an emergency meeting and cut rates immediately, increasing political pressure on the Fed. However, the Fed maintained its independent stance and did not cut rates at this meeting.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Emphasizes Inflation Risks and Labor Market Stability at March Press Conference

October Meeting plunges to 64%15%

Following the March FOMC meeting, Chair Powell highlighted persistent inflation risks and a stable labor market, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts. His remarks tempered market expectations for immediate easing, contributing to the price decline in the October and September meeting options.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at March FOMC meeting amid Middle East conflict and inflation concerns

December Meeting plunges to 62%17%

The FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% during the March 17-18 meeting, citing little change in the U.S. macroeconomic outlook despite increased near-term inflation projections and geopolitical tensions. One dissenting vote favored a 25 basis point cut, but the committee overall remained cautious.