Traders see a near-even split between Pause–Pause–Pause and Other outcomes for the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings because persistent inflation above the 2% target—fueled by energy and supply shocks from Middle East tensions—has kept the federal funds rate anchored at 3.50–3.75% after unanimous holds in June and a 9–3 decision in July. Three regional presidents dissented in July in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting hawkish views amid solid economic growth and stable labor market conditions near 4.1–4.3% unemployment. With the September 15–16 meeting now the decisive catalyst, market-implied odds capture uncertainty over whether incoming data will support another pause or prompt a rate increase, while any cut sequence remains a low-probability tail. Aggregated trader positions on Polymarket reflect this closely contested policy path amid elevated uncertainty.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाOther 51%
Pause–Pause–Pause 50%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$836,055 वॉल्यूम
$836,055 वॉल्यूम
15 सित, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
50%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
51%
Other 51%
Pause–Pause–Pause 50%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$836,055 वॉल्यूम
$836,055 वॉल्यूम
15 सित, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$321,029 वॉल्यूम
50%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$99,971 वॉल्यूम
1%
Other
$359,179 वॉल्यूम
51%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders see a near-even split between Pause–Pause–Pause and Other outcomes for the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings because persistent inflation above the 2% target—fueled by energy and supply shocks from Middle East tensions—has kept the federal funds rate anchored at 3.50–3.75% after unanimous holds in June and a 9–3 decision in July. Three regional presidents dissented in July in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting hawkish views amid solid economic growth and stable labor market conditions near 4.1–4.3% unemployment. With the September 15–16 meeting now the decisive catalyst, market-implied odds capture uncertainty over whether incoming data will support another pause or prompt a rate increase, while any cut sequence remains a low-probability tail. Aggregated trader positions on Polymarket reflect this closely contested policy path amid elevated uncertainty.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$836,055समाप्ति तिथि
16 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders see a near-even split between Pause–Pause–Pause and Other outcomes for the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings because persistent inflation above the 2% target—fueled by energy and supply shocks from Middle East tensions—has kept the federal funds rate anchored at 3.50–3.75% after unanimous holds in June and a 9–3 decision in July. Three regional presidents dissented in July in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting hawkish views amid solid economic growth and stable labor market conditions near 4.1–4.3% unemployment. With the September 15–16 meeting now the decisive catalyst, market-implied odds capture uncertainty over whether incoming data will support another pause or prompt a rate increase, while any cut sequence remains a low-probability tail. Aggregated trader positions on Polymarket reflect this closely contested policy path amid elevated uncertainty.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
वॉल्यूम
$836,055समाप्ति तिथि
16 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a near-even split between Pause–Pause–Pause and Other outcomes for the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings because persistent inflation above the 2% target—fueled by energy and supply shocks from Middle East tensions—has kept the federal funds rate anchored at 3.50–3.75% after unanimous holds in June and a 9–3 decision in July. Three regional presidents dissented in July in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting hawkish views amid solid economic growth and stable labor market conditions near 4.1–4.3% unemployment. With the September 15–16 meeting now the decisive catalyst, market-implied odds capture uncertainty over whether incoming data will support another pause or prompt a rate increase, while any cut sequence remains a low-probability tail. Aggregated trader positions on Polymarket reflect this closely contested policy path amid elevated uncertainty.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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