Iran’s nuclear infrastructure sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026, leaving major enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inoperable or inaccessible. IAEA reports through June 2026 confirm suspended verification activities at key facilities, an unaccounted 60% enriched uranium stockpile, and no evidence of ongoing enrichment or reprocessing. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding commits Tehran to downblending that stockpile under IAEA supervision, maintaining the current status quo on enrichment, and pursuing a longer-term accord, while Iran has reaffirmed it will not pursue nuclear weapons. These constraints, combined with continued diplomatic negotiations and sanctions pressure, underpin trader expectations that a nuclear test will not occur before 2027.
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Iran nuclear test before 2027?
6% peluang
$251,510 Vol.
$251,510 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% peluang
$251,510 Vol.
$251,510 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear infrastructure sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026, leaving major enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inoperable or inaccessible. IAEA reports through June 2026 confirm suspended verification activities at key facilities, an unaccounted 60% enriched uranium stockpile, and no evidence of ongoing enrichment or reprocessing. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding commits Tehran to downblending that stockpile under IAEA supervision, maintaining the current status quo on enrichment, and pursuing a longer-term accord, while Iran has reaffirmed it will not pursue nuclear weapons. These constraints, combined with continued diplomatic negotiations and sanctions pressure, underpin trader expectations that a nuclear test will not occur before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$251,510Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear infrastructure sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026, leaving major enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inoperable or inaccessible. IAEA reports through June 2026 confirm suspended verification activities at key facilities, an unaccounted 60% enriched uranium stockpile, and no evidence of ongoing enrichment or reprocessing. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding commits Tehran to downblending that stockpile under IAEA supervision, maintaining the current status quo on enrichment, and pursuing a longer-term accord, while Iran has reaffirmed it will not pursue nuclear weapons. These constraints, combined with continued diplomatic negotiations and sanctions pressure, underpin trader expectations that a nuclear test will not occur before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$251,510Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s nuclear infrastructure sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026, leaving major enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inoperable or inaccessible. IAEA reports through June 2026 confirm suspended verification activities at key facilities, an unaccounted 60% enriched uranium stockpile, and no evidence of ongoing enrichment or reprocessing. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding commits Tehran to downblending that stockpile under IAEA supervision, maintaining the current status quo on enrichment, and pursuing a longer-term accord, while Iran has reaffirmed it will not pursue nuclear weapons. These constraints, combined with continued diplomatic negotiations and sanctions pressure, underpin trader expectations that a nuclear test will not occur before 2027.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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