**Latest global and regional forecast models (ECMWF, GFS, and CMA runs) show a consensus minimum temperature near 20–22 °C for Zhengzhou on September 1 under clear skies, light-to-moderate northeasterly winds, and dry conditions following a stable high-pressure pattern.** This places the most likely outcome in the 20–22 °C range, consistent with early-September climatology adjusted for the current warm anomaly. The market’s elevated probability on 15 °C or below (48 %) appears driven by trader emphasis on model spread in overnight radiative cooling rates and potential microclimate or urban-heat-island effects that could produce a slightly lower reading at official stations. Higher thresholds above 23 °C carry minimal implied odds, reflecting the low likelihood of sustained warmth through the night. Updated model guidance and official CMA minimum-temperature bulletins expected overnight remain the key near-term catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Zhengzhou on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Zhengzhou on September 1?
16°C 50%
17°C 50%
23°C 50%
18°C 26%
BARU
BARU
Sep 1, 2026
15°C or below
-
16°C
50%
17°C
50%
18°C
26%
19°C
26%
20°C
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
50%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
16°C 50%
17°C 50%
23°C 50%
18°C 26%
BARU
BARU
Sep 1, 2026
15°C or below
$5 Vol.
-
16°C
$5 Vol.
50%
17°C
$5 Vol.
50%
18°C
$0 Vol.
26%
19°C
$0 Vol.
26%
20°C
$0 Vol.
26%
21°C
$0 Vol.
26%
22°C
$0 Vol.
26%
23°C
$20 Vol.
50%
24°C
$55 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$30 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest global and regional forecast models (ECMWF, GFS, and CMA runs) show a consensus minimum temperature near 20–22 °C for Zhengzhou on September 1 under clear skies, light-to-moderate northeasterly winds, and dry conditions following a stable high-pressure pattern.** This places the most likely outcome in the 20–22 °C range, consistent with early-September climatology adjusted for the current warm anomaly. The market’s elevated probability on 15 °C or below (48 %) appears driven by trader emphasis on model spread in overnight radiative cooling rates and potential microclimate or urban-heat-island effects that could produce a slightly lower reading at official stations. Higher thresholds above 23 °C carry minimal implied odds, reflecting the low likelihood of sustained warmth through the night. Updated model guidance and official CMA minimum-temperature bulletins expected overnight remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 31, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$120Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 31, 2026, 12:28 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhccResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest global and regional forecast models (ECMWF, GFS, and CMA runs) show a consensus minimum temperature near 20–22 °C for Zhengzhou on September 1 under clear skies, light-to-moderate northeasterly winds, and dry conditions following a stable high-pressure pattern.** This places the most likely outcome in the 20–22 °C range, consistent with early-September climatology adjusted for the current warm anomaly. The market’s elevated probability on 15 °C or below (48 %) appears driven by trader emphasis on model spread in overnight radiative cooling rates and potential microclimate or urban-heat-island effects that could produce a slightly lower reading at official stations. Higher thresholds above 23 °C carry minimal implied odds, reflecting the low likelihood of sustained warmth through the night. Updated model guidance and official CMA minimum-temperature bulletins expected overnight remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$120Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 31, 2026, 12:28 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhccResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest global and regional forecast models (ECMWF, GFS, and CMA runs) show a consensus minimum temperature near 20–22 °C for Zhengzhou on September 1 under clear skies, light-to-moderate northeasterly winds, and dry conditions following a stable high-pressure pattern.** This places the most likely outcome in the 20–22 °C range, consistent with early-September climatology adjusted for the current warm anomaly. The market’s elevated probability on 15 °C or below (48 %) appears driven by trader emphasis on model spread in overnight radiative cooling rates and potential microclimate or urban-heat-island effects that could produce a slightly lower reading at official stations. Higher thresholds above 23 °C carry minimal implied odds, reflecting the low likelihood of sustained warmth through the night. Updated model guidance and official CMA minimum-temperature bulletins expected overnight remain the key near-term catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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