Recent July 2026 final-demand PPI printed unchanged month-over-month and 4.7% year-over-year, below expectations, after June’s 5.5% annual rate, as energy and goods prices declined sharply. Traders now price a 70% chance that August 2026 PPI YoY exceeds 5.1%, reflecting anticipated rebound from later-July energy spikes not captured in the prior report, alongside persistent services and core goods pressures. Consensus forecasts cluster near 5.3%, with the release scheduled for September 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Market-implied odds embed the view that pipeline inflation remains elevated relative to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, consistent with recent Treasury yield and commodity price signals, while leaving room for downside surprises if energy costs moderate further.