Strong El Niño conditions and elevated Atlantic wind shear have suppressed tropical cyclone formation and intensification through late August 2026, yielding only weak named storms and zero hurricanes to date. NOAA’s August 6 update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full June–November period, well below the 1991–2020 averages. With roughly four months remaining before the 2026 season ends on November 30 and peak activity windows already underway under hostile steering patterns, the chance of a Category 4 system (Saffir-Simpson winds of 130–156 mph) forming and making U.S. landfall is low. Trader consensus at 85.5% “No” reflects these official agency outlooks and the season’s accumulated cyclone energy running ~90% below normal.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
15% peluang
$341,038 Vol.
$341,038 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
15% peluang
$341,038 Vol.
$341,038 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions and elevated Atlantic wind shear have suppressed tropical cyclone formation and intensification through late August 2026, yielding only weak named storms and zero hurricanes to date. NOAA’s August 6 update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full June–November period, well below the 1991–2020 averages. With roughly four months remaining before the 2026 season ends on November 30 and peak activity windows already underway under hostile steering patterns, the chance of a Category 4 system (Saffir-Simpson winds of 130–156 mph) forming and making U.S. landfall is low. Trader consensus at 85.5% “No” reflects these official agency outlooks and the season’s accumulated cyclone energy running ~90% below normal.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$341,038Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions and elevated Atlantic wind shear have suppressed tropical cyclone formation and intensification through late August 2026, yielding only weak named storms and zero hurricanes to date. NOAA’s August 6 update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full June–November period, well below the 1991–2020 averages. With roughly four months remaining before the 2026 season ends on November 30 and peak activity windows already underway under hostile steering patterns, the chance of a Category 4 system (Saffir-Simpson winds of 130–156 mph) forming and making U.S. landfall is low. Trader consensus at 85.5% “No” reflects these official agency outlooks and the season’s accumulated cyclone energy running ~90% below normal.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$341,038Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions and elevated Atlantic wind shear have suppressed tropical cyclone formation and intensification through late August 2026, yielding only weak named storms and zero hurricanes to date. NOAA’s August 6 update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full June–November period, well below the 1991–2020 averages. With roughly four months remaining before the 2026 season ends on November 30 and peak activity windows already underway under hostile steering patterns, the chance of a Category 4 system (Saffir-Simpson winds of 130–156 mph) forming and making U.S. landfall is low. Trader consensus at 85.5% “No” reflects these official agency outlooks and the season’s accumulated cyclone energy running ~90% below normal.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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