Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in the AZ-09 House race, reflecting the district’s strong Republican lean in western Arizona counties where GOP voter registration exceeds Democrats by more than two-to-one. Gosar won reelection with roughly 65 percent in 2024 and advanced unopposed through the July 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Dani Sterbinsky also faced no primary opposition. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican based on the district’s partisan fundamentals and Gosar’s consistent margins. Traders price in limited upset risk ahead of the November 3 general election, though a major personal scandal, serious health development, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the gap.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAZ-09 House Election Winner
AZ-09 House Election Winner
$26,127 Vol.
$26,127 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Paul Gosar (R)
95%
Dani Sterbinsky (D)
4%
$26,127 Vol.
$26,127 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Paul Gosar (R)
$10,243 Vol.
95%
Dani Sterbinsky (D)
$15,884 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in the AZ-09 House race, reflecting the district’s strong Republican lean in western Arizona counties where GOP voter registration exceeds Democrats by more than two-to-one. Gosar won reelection with roughly 65 percent in 2024 and advanced unopposed through the July 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Dani Sterbinsky also faced no primary opposition. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican based on the district’s partisan fundamentals and Gosar’s consistent margins. Traders price in limited upset risk ahead of the November 3 general election, though a major personal scandal, serious health development, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$26,127Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in the AZ-09 House race, reflecting the district’s strong Republican lean in western Arizona counties where GOP voter registration exceeds Democrats by more than two-to-one. Gosar won reelection with roughly 65 percent in 2024 and advanced unopposed through the July 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Dani Sterbinsky also faced no primary opposition. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican based on the district’s partisan fundamentals and Gosar’s consistent margins. Traders price in limited upset risk ahead of the November 3 general election, though a major personal scandal, serious health development, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,127Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in the AZ-09 House race, reflecting the district’s strong Republican lean in western Arizona counties where GOP voter registration exceeds Democrats by more than two-to-one. Gosar won reelection with roughly 65 percent in 2024 and advanced unopposed through the July 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Dani Sterbinsky also faced no primary opposition. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican based on the district’s partisan fundamentals and Gosar’s consistent margins. Traders price in limited upset risk ahead of the November 3 general election, though a major personal scandal, serious health development, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the gap.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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