Claude Fable 5.1-max holds an 85.5% implied probability as the leading outcome because Anthropic released the model on September 1, 2026, immediately establishing it as the top performer on independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign v5 (84.4 score) and multiple agentic coding and research benchmarks. It outperforms prior Claude variants and rivals like GPT-6 Astra on long-horizon tasks, with traders viewing the fresh benchmark dominance and general availability on the Claude platform as decisive for the September 14 resolution. The remaining probability mass on "Other" and lower-tier Opus variants reflects minor uncertainty around exact evaluation criteria or any last-minute competitive announcements.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale del 14 settembre?
Il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale del 14 settembre?
claude-fable-5.1-max 86%
Altro 14%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
claude-opus-5-max <1%
$20,343 Vol.
$20,343 Vol.
14 set 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
86%
Altro
14%
claude-opus-5-high
1%
claude-opus-5-max
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
<1%
claude-fable-5.1-max 86%
Altro 14%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
claude-opus-5-max <1%
$20,343 Vol.
$20,343 Vol.
14 set 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
$9,175 Vol.
86%
Altro
$7,945 Vol.
14%
claude-opus-5-high
$1,780 Vol.
1%
claude-opus-5-max
$1,036 Vol.
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$408 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Fable 5.1-max holds an 85.5% implied probability as the leading outcome because Anthropic released the model on September 1, 2026, immediately establishing it as the top performer on independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign v5 (84.4 score) and multiple agentic coding and research benchmarks. It outperforms prior Claude variants and rivals like GPT-6 Astra on long-horizon tasks, with traders viewing the fresh benchmark dominance and general availability on the Claude platform as decisive for the September 14 resolution. The remaining probability mass on "Other" and lower-tier Opus variants reflects minor uncertainty around exact evaluation criteria or any last-minute competitive announcements.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercato aperto: Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
Volume
$20,343Data di fine
14 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Fable 5.1-max holds an 85.5% implied probability as the leading outcome because Anthropic released the model on September 1, 2026, immediately establishing it as the top performer on independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign v5 (84.4 score) and multiple agentic coding and research benchmarks. It outperforms prior Claude variants and rivals like GPT-6 Astra on long-horizon tasks, with traders viewing the fresh benchmark dominance and general availability on the Claude platform as decisive for the September 14 resolution. The remaining probability mass on "Other" and lower-tier Opus variants reflects minor uncertainty around exact evaluation criteria or any last-minute competitive announcements.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$20,343Data di fine
14 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Claude Fable 5.1-max holds an 85.5% implied probability as the leading outcome because Anthropic released the model on September 1, 2026, immediately establishing it as the top performer on independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign v5 (84.4 score) and multiple agentic coding and research benchmarks. It outperforms prior Claude variants and rivals like GPT-6 Astra on long-horizon tasks, with traders viewing the fresh benchmark dominance and general availability on the Claude platform as decisive for the September 14 resolution. The remaining probability mass on "Other" and lower-tier Opus variants reflects minor uncertainty around exact evaluation criteria or any last-minute competitive announcements.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Claude-fable-5.1-max sarà il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale il 21 settembre 2026?
75%
Sì
Il prossimo modello Claude Opus debutterà con un punteggio di almeno 1500 entro il 31 dicembre 2026?
64%
Sì
Anthropic avrà il modello di intelligenza artificiale numero uno alla fine di settembre 2026?
86%
Sì
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