Redistricting approved by California voters in 2025 shifted CA-01 toward Democrats by incorporating more favorable territory, producing a solid Democratic baseline that underpins the current market pricing. James Gallagher won the June special election for the remainder of the prior term, yet the November general election pits him against state Sen. Mike McGuire in a district whose new lines favor the Democratic nominee by double-digit margins according to independent ratings. Recent primary results and fundraising patterns have reinforced this positioning without introducing major disruptions. Late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts, candidate health events, or national political swings could still alter the outcome, though the structural advantage limits realistic paths for an upset.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-01
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-01
$35,032 Vol.
$35,032 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Mike McGuire (D)
97%
James Gallagher (R)
2%
$35,032 Vol.
$35,032 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Mike McGuire (D)
$26,310 Vol.
97%
James Gallagher (R)
$8,722 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting approved by California voters in 2025 shifted CA-01 toward Democrats by incorporating more favorable territory, producing a solid Democratic baseline that underpins the current market pricing. James Gallagher won the June special election for the remainder of the prior term, yet the November general election pits him against state Sen. Mike McGuire in a district whose new lines favor the Democratic nominee by double-digit margins according to independent ratings. Recent primary results and fundraising patterns have reinforced this positioning without introducing major disruptions. Late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts, candidate health events, or national political swings could still alter the outcome, though the structural advantage limits realistic paths for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$35,032Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting approved by California voters in 2025 shifted CA-01 toward Democrats by incorporating more favorable territory, producing a solid Democratic baseline that underpins the current market pricing. James Gallagher won the June special election for the remainder of the prior term, yet the November general election pits him against state Sen. Mike McGuire in a district whose new lines favor the Democratic nominee by double-digit margins according to independent ratings. Recent primary results and fundraising patterns have reinforced this positioning without introducing major disruptions. Late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts, candidate health events, or national political swings could still alter the outcome, though the structural advantage limits realistic paths for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,032Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting approved by California voters in 2025 shifted CA-01 toward Democrats by incorporating more favorable territory, producing a solid Democratic baseline that underpins the current market pricing. James Gallagher won the June special election for the remainder of the prior term, yet the November general election pits him against state Sen. Mike McGuire in a district whose new lines favor the Democratic nominee by double-digit margins according to independent ratings. Recent primary results and fundraising patterns have reinforced this positioning without introducing major disruptions. Late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts, candidate health events, or national political swings could still alter the outcome, though the structural advantage limits realistic paths for an upset.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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