NATO allies reaffirmed their ironclad commitment to Article 5 at the July 2026 Ankara summit, while U.S. intelligence assessments highlight risks of limited Russian hybrid actions—such as drone or missile incursions or small-scale probes targeting the Baltics or Poland—potentially testing alliance resolve before 2029. Recent airspace violations over Poland and Romania, plus incidents like the Leipzig drone attempt, prompted consultations under Article 4 but have not escalated to the armed attack threshold requiring unanimous invocation and collective response. With Russia still engaged in Ukraine and no confirmed preparations for a conventional strike on NATO territory in the immediate term, traders assign only an 7.5% implied probability to Article 5 activation before 2027, reflecting the narrow window, deterrence signals including the CIA director’s Moscow visit, and the alliance’s preference for calibrated measures short of full collective defense.