**Trump’s explicit public statements rejecting near-term recognition of Somaliland, combined with continued U.S. diplomatic support for Somalia’s territorial integrity, anchor trader expectations that formal acknowledgment will not occur before 2027.** In December 2025, shortly after Israel became the first UN member state to recognize the territory, Trump told the New York Post he had no plans to follow suit and questioned whether many even knew what Somaliland was. He has since reiterated that the matter remains “under study” without signaling urgency. The State Department’s June 2026 report to Congress reaffirmed Washington’s position that Somaliland falls under Somalia’s sovereignty while pledging only continued constructive engagement short of recognition. Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi “Irro” has intensified lobbying in Washington this September, offering port access at Berbera, mineral deals, and security cooperation amid Red Sea tensions. Congressional supporters including Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Scott Perry have introduced measures, yet these remain stalled. The White House has confirmed no policy change, and no high-level meetings with Trump or Secretary Rubio have materialized. These factors—presidential reluctance, bureaucratic continuity, and limited diplomatic momentum—explain the strong market consensus against recognition by year-end 2026.