Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense assessment in its August 2026 China Military Power Report concluded that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the amphibious lift, sustained logistics, and joint air-sea control needed for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. Recent months have shown intensified Chinese coast guard and research vessel activity around the island, including east of Taiwan, alongside routine PLA carrier transits and drone reconnaissance during Taiwanese drills, yet these operations emphasize blockade and quarantine preparations rather than imminent landing operations. With only months remaining before the end of 2026, traders price the low probability of a sudden shift to invasion. A major escalation could still arise from miscalculation during heightened exercises, abrupt changes in U.S. arms policy, or leadership developments in Beijing or Taipei that alter deterrence calculations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa Cina invaderà Taiwan entro la fine del 2026?
La Cina invaderà Taiwan entro la fine del 2026?
Sì
4% probabilità
$42,479,633 Vol.
$42,479,633 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Guadagna il 3.25%
Sì
4% probabilità
$42,479,633 Vol.
$42,479,633 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Guadagna il 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense assessment in its August 2026 China Military Power Report concluded that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the amphibious lift, sustained logistics, and joint air-sea control needed for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. Recent months have shown intensified Chinese coast guard and research vessel activity around the island, including east of Taiwan, alongside routine PLA carrier transits and drone reconnaissance during Taiwanese drills, yet these operations emphasize blockade and quarantine preparations rather than imminent landing operations. With only months remaining before the end of 2026, traders price the low probability of a sudden shift to invasion. A major escalation could still arise from miscalculation during heightened exercises, abrupt changes in U.S. arms policy, or leadership developments in Beijing or Taipei that alter deterrence calculations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$42,479,633Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETRisolutore
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense assessment in its August 2026 China Military Power Report concluded that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the amphibious lift, sustained logistics, and joint air-sea control needed for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. Recent months have shown intensified Chinese coast guard and research vessel activity around the island, including east of Taiwan, alongside routine PLA carrier transits and drone reconnaissance during Taiwanese drills, yet these operations emphasize blockade and quarantine preparations rather than imminent landing operations. With only months remaining before the end of 2026, traders price the low probability of a sudden shift to invasion. A major escalation could still arise from miscalculation during heightened exercises, abrupt changes in U.S. arms policy, or leadership developments in Beijing or Taipei that alter deterrence calculations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$42,479,633Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETRisolutore
0x157Ce2d67...Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense assessment in its August 2026 China Military Power Report concluded that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the amphibious lift, sustained logistics, and joint air-sea control needed for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. Recent months have shown intensified Chinese coast guard and research vessel activity around the island, including east of Taiwan, alongside routine PLA carrier transits and drone reconnaissance during Taiwanese drills, yet these operations emphasize blockade and quarantine preparations rather than imminent landing operations. With only months remaining before the end of 2026, traders price the low probability of a sudden shift to invasion. A major escalation could still arise from miscalculation during heightened exercises, abrupt changes in U.S. arms policy, or leadership developments in Beijing or Taipei that alter deterrence calculations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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