Incumbent Democrat Steven Horsford holds a commanding position in Nevada’s 4th congressional district, a seat rated Likely Democratic by multiple forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The district’s modest Democratic lean, combined with Horsford’s established fundraising edge and name recognition after prior reelection wins, underpins trader consensus around an 89.5% probability for the Democratic nominee. Cody Whipple’s victory in the June Republican primary clarified the general-election matchup, yet no polling or developments since then have altered the structural advantages favoring the incumbent. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with limited late-cycle factors expected to shift the implied probability significantly.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNV-04 House Election Winner
NV-04 House Election Winner
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
90%
Republican Party
11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$2,717 Vol.
90%
Republican Party
$3,520 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Steven Horsford holds a commanding position in Nevada’s 4th congressional district, a seat rated Likely Democratic by multiple forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The district’s modest Democratic lean, combined with Horsford’s established fundraising edge and name recognition after prior reelection wins, underpins trader consensus around an 89.5% probability for the Democratic nominee. Cody Whipple’s victory in the June Republican primary clarified the general-election matchup, yet no polling or developments since then have altered the structural advantages favoring the incumbent. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with limited late-cycle factors expected to shift the implied probability significantly.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Volume
$6,237Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Steven Horsford holds a commanding position in Nevada’s 4th congressional district, a seat rated Likely Democratic by multiple forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The district’s modest Democratic lean, combined with Horsford’s established fundraising edge and name recognition after prior reelection wins, underpins trader consensus around an 89.5% probability for the Democratic nominee. Cody Whipple’s victory in the June Republican primary clarified the general-election matchup, yet no polling or developments since then have altered the structural advantages favoring the incumbent. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with limited late-cycle factors expected to shift the implied probability significantly.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$6,237Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Steven Horsford holds a commanding position in Nevada’s 4th congressional district, a seat rated Likely Democratic by multiple forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The district’s modest Democratic lean, combined with Horsford’s established fundraising edge and name recognition after prior reelection wins, underpins trader consensus around an 89.5% probability for the Democratic nominee. Cody Whipple’s victory in the June Republican primary clarified the general-election matchup, yet no polling or developments since then have altered the structural advantages favoring the incumbent. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with limited late-cycle factors expected to shift the implied probability significantly.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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