**No at 75.5%** reflects the low base rate of 5 kt-scale bolides—roughly one every 1–2 years globally per NASA CNEOS and CTBTO infrasound records—combined with the absence of any qualifying event through mid-September 2026. Historical data show ~0.7–1 such impacts annually on average, yielding an unconditional yearly probability near 50%, but the long quiet period so far sharply reduces the conditional odds for the remainder of the year. No near-Earth objects on current risk lists (ESA or NASA) carry meaningful impact probability in 2026, and recent fireballs, including Midwest sightings, have registered well below threshold. Traders price in continued monitoring by CNEOS through year-end, with resolution hinging on official energy estimates rather than visual reports.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
25% 確率
$313,836 Vol.
$313,836 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
25% 確率
$313,836 Vol.
$313,836 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 75.5%** reflects the low base rate of 5 kt-scale bolides—roughly one every 1–2 years globally per NASA CNEOS and CTBTO infrasound records—combined with the absence of any qualifying event through mid-September 2026. Historical data show ~0.7–1 such impacts annually on average, yielding an unconditional yearly probability near 50%, but the long quiet period so far sharply reduces the conditional odds for the remainder of the year. No near-Earth objects on current risk lists (ESA or NASA) carry meaningful impact probability in 2026, and recent fireballs, including Midwest sightings, have registered well below threshold. Traders price in continued monitoring by CNEOS through year-end, with resolution hinging on official energy estimates rather than visual reports.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
音量
$313,836終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 75.5%** reflects the low base rate of 5 kt-scale bolides—roughly one every 1–2 years globally per NASA CNEOS and CTBTO infrasound records—combined with the absence of any qualifying event through mid-September 2026. Historical data show ~0.7–1 such impacts annually on average, yielding an unconditional yearly probability near 50%, but the long quiet period so far sharply reduces the conditional odds for the remainder of the year. No near-Earth objects on current risk lists (ESA or NASA) carry meaningful impact probability in 2026, and recent fireballs, including Midwest sightings, have registered well below threshold. Traders price in continued monitoring by CNEOS through year-end, with resolution hinging on official energy estimates rather than visual reports.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$313,836終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**No at 75.5%** reflects the low base rate of 5 kt-scale bolides—roughly one every 1–2 years globally per NASA CNEOS and CTBTO infrasound records—combined with the absence of any qualifying event through mid-September 2026. Historical data show ~0.7–1 such impacts annually on average, yielding an unconditional yearly probability near 50%, but the long quiet period so far sharply reduces the conditional odds for the remainder of the year. No near-Earth objects on current risk lists (ESA or NASA) carry meaningful impact probability in 2026, and recent fireballs, including Midwest sightings, have registered well below threshold. Traders price in continued monitoring by CNEOS through year-end, with resolution hinging on official energy estimates rather than visual reports.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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