Recent record-breaking sea surface temperatures, reaching 21.1°C globally on August 22 according to Copernicus data, combined with a strengthening El Niño event, have driven elevated August 2026 surface temperatures and the market's 90.5% consensus on a 1.38–1.41°C anomaly above the 1850–1900 baseline. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the underlying trend, while the developing El Niño adds short-term tropical heat that aligns with UAH tropospheric readings of +0.68°C and Berkeley Earth’s high July values. Final official datasets from agencies like NOAA or NASA could still shift the precise bin if revisions occur, though current observations make lower or higher outcomes unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年8月気温上昇（º C ） （より高いストライキ）
2026年8月気温上昇（º C ） （より高いストライキ）
1.38–1.41ºC 90%
1.42–1.45ºC 9%
1.34–1.37ºC 1.3%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,478 Vol.
$20,478 Vol.
2026/08/31
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
1%
1.38–1.41ºC
90%
1.42–1.45ºC
9%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 90%
1.42–1.45ºC 9%
1.34–1.37ºC 1.3%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,478 Vol.
$20,478 Vol.
2026/08/31
<1.30ºC
$657 Vol.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Vol.
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,129 Vol.
1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,484 Vol.
90%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,216 Vol.
9%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent record-breaking sea surface temperatures, reaching 21.1°C globally on August 22 according to Copernicus data, combined with a strengthening El Niño event, have driven elevated August 2026 surface temperatures and the market's 90.5% consensus on a 1.38–1.41°C anomaly above the 1850–1900 baseline. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the underlying trend, while the developing El Niño adds short-term tropical heat that aligns with UAH tropospheric readings of +0.68°C and Berkeley Earth’s high July values. Final official datasets from agencies like NOAA or NASA could still shift the precise bin if revisions occur, though current observations make lower or higher outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
マーケット開始日： Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
音量
$20,478終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent record-breaking sea surface temperatures, reaching 21.1°C globally on August 22 according to Copernicus data, combined with a strengthening El Niño event, have driven elevated August 2026 surface temperatures and the market's 90.5% consensus on a 1.38–1.41°C anomaly above the 1850–1900 baseline. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the underlying trend, while the developing El Niño adds short-term tropical heat that aligns with UAH tropospheric readings of +0.68°C and Berkeley Earth’s high July values. Final official datasets from agencies like NOAA or NASA could still shift the precise bin if revisions occur, though current observations make lower or higher outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
音量
$20,478終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent record-breaking sea surface temperatures, reaching 21.1°C globally on August 22 according to Copernicus data, combined with a strengthening El Niño event, have driven elevated August 2026 surface temperatures and the market's 90.5% consensus on a 1.38–1.41°C anomaly above the 1850–1900 baseline. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the underlying trend, while the developing El Niño adds short-term tropical heat that aligns with UAH tropospheric readings of +0.68°C and Berkeley Earth’s high July values. Final official datasets from agencies like NOAA or NASA could still shift the precise bin if revisions occur, though current observations make lower or higher outcomes unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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