A rapidly strengthening super El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts pointing to a November–January peak near +3.5–4°C, combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content through August and recent monthly anomalies near or above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels support trader-implied odds favoring a second-place finish (56%), as the event’s global temperature response typically lags peak ENSO conditions by several months and 2024 remains the benchmark. Model consensus and historical analogs from prior strong events indicate a realistic path to first place if early intensification boosts September anomalies further, while dataset differences and natural variability introduce uncertainty that could push the month to third or lower.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年9月史上1番目、2番目、3番目に暑い?
2番目に暑い 57%
4番目またはそれ以下 40%
史上1位の暑さ 36%
3番目に暑い 26%
史上1位の暑さ
36%
2番目に暑い
57%
3番目に暑い
26%
4番目またはそれ以下
40%
2番目に暑い 57%
4番目またはそれ以下 40%
史上1位の暑さ 36%
3番目に暑い 26%
史上1位の暑さ
36%
2番目に暑い
57%
3番目に暑い
26%
4番目またはそれ以下
40%
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
マーケット開始日: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly strengthening super El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts pointing to a November–January peak near +3.5–4°C, combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content through August and recent monthly anomalies near or above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels support trader-implied odds favoring a second-place finish (56%), as the event’s global temperature response typically lags peak ENSO conditions by several months and 2024 remains the benchmark. Model consensus and historical analogs from prior strong events indicate a realistic path to first place if early intensification boosts September anomalies further, while dataset differences and natural variability introduce uncertainty that could push the month to third or lower.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日

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