**Trader consensus strongly favors 80-99 tornadoes for the full month of August 2026 at 83% implied probability.** Preliminary Storm Prediction Center data through August 25 showed 89 confirmed U.S. tornadoes, aligning closely with the long-term August average of roughly 81-94. Mid-month severe weather outbreaks, including a derecho and multiple confirmed tornadoes in Ohio on August 11 and 15, boosted totals in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes but did not trigger a sustained surge. Late-month conditions under an upper ridge have limited widespread severe activity, keeping additional reports modest. With final National Weather Service surveys ongoing and resolution imminent on September 1, the market-implied odds reflect the current trajectory remaining within the 80-99 bin absent an unprecedented final-day spike.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年8月に米国で発生した竜巻は何回ですか？
2026年8月に米国で発生した竜巻は何回ですか？
80-99 83%
100–119 15%
60-79 1.8%
170–199 <1%
新規
新規
2026/09/01
<40
<1%
40–59
1%
60-79
2%
80-99
83%
100–119
15%
120–139
<1%
140-169
1%
170–199
1%
200+
<1%
80-99 83%
100–119 15%
60-79 1.8%
170–199 <1%
新規
新規
2026/09/01
<40
$402 Vol.
<1%
40–59
$604 Vol.
1%
60-79
$2,136 Vol.
2%
80-99
$3,980 Vol.
83%
100–119
$955 Vol.
15%
120–139
$190 Vol.
<1%
140-169
$336 Vol.
1%
170–199
$351 Vol.
1%
200+
$406 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader consensus strongly favors 80-99 tornadoes for the full month of August 2026 at 83% implied probability.** Preliminary Storm Prediction Center data through August 25 showed 89 confirmed U.S. tornadoes, aligning closely with the long-term August average of roughly 81-94. Mid-month severe weather outbreaks, including a derecho and multiple confirmed tornadoes in Ohio on August 11 and 15, boosted totals in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes but did not trigger a sustained surge. Late-month conditions under an upper ridge have limited widespread severe activity, keeping additional reports modest. With final National Weather Service surveys ongoing and resolution imminent on September 1, the market-implied odds reflect the current trajectory remaining within the 80-99 bin absent an unprecedented final-day spike.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
マーケット開始日： Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
音量
$9,360終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader consensus strongly favors 80-99 tornadoes for the full month of August 2026 at 83% implied probability.** Preliminary Storm Prediction Center data through August 25 showed 89 confirmed U.S. tornadoes, aligning closely with the long-term August average of roughly 81-94. Mid-month severe weather outbreaks, including a derecho and multiple confirmed tornadoes in Ohio on August 11 and 15, boosted totals in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes but did not trigger a sustained surge. Late-month conditions under an upper ridge have limited widespread severe activity, keeping additional reports modest. With final National Weather Service surveys ongoing and resolution imminent on September 1, the market-implied odds reflect the current trajectory remaining within the 80-99 bin absent an unprecedented final-day spike.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
音量
$9,360終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors 80-99 tornadoes for the full month of August 2026 at 83% implied probability.** Preliminary Storm Prediction Center data through August 25 showed 89 confirmed U.S. tornadoes, aligning closely with the long-term August average of roughly 81-94. Mid-month severe weather outbreaks, including a derecho and multiple confirmed tornadoes in Ohio on August 11 and 15, boosted totals in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes but did not trigger a sustained surge. Late-month conditions under an upper ridge have limited widespread severe activity, keeping additional reports modest. With final National Weather Service surveys ongoing and resolution imminent on September 1, the market-implied odds reflect the current trajectory remaining within the 80-99 bin absent an unprecedented final-day spike.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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