A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.5 °C in late August 2026 and forecasts pointing to a very strong or record peak later in the year, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing September 2026 global surface temperatures toward the higher bins near or above 1.45–1.49 °C. This event builds on elevated baseline ocean heat content and follows July’s observed anomaly of roughly 1.56 °C, though the typical 3–5 month lag in global-mean response means much of the El Niño’s full warming influence arrives after September. Model ensembles show wide spreads in exact monthly outcomes due to internal variability, potential short-term cooling from regional patterns, and measurement differences across datasets, keeping implied probabilities tightly clustered across the 1.30–1.49 °C range and underscoring the value of upcoming NOAA and NASA updates for refining trader positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年9月温度上昇（º C ）
2026年9月温度上昇（º C ）
>1.49ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40～1.44ºC 50%
1.45〜1.49ºC 50%
新規
新規
2026/10/09
1.30ºC未満
49%
1.30〜1.34℃
49%
1.35–1.39ºC
50%
1.40～1.44ºC
50%
1.45〜1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40～1.44ºC 50%
1.45〜1.49ºC 50%
新規
新規
2026/10/09
1.30ºC未満
$0 Vol.
49%
1.30〜1.34℃
$0 Vol.
49%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.40～1.44ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.45〜1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
>1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.5 °C in late August 2026 and forecasts pointing to a very strong or record peak later in the year, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing September 2026 global surface temperatures toward the higher bins near or above 1.45–1.49 °C. This event builds on elevated baseline ocean heat content and follows July’s observed anomaly of roughly 1.56 °C, though the typical 3–5 month lag in global-mean response means much of the El Niño’s full warming influence arrives after September. Model ensembles show wide spreads in exact monthly outcomes due to internal variability, potential short-term cooling from regional patterns, and measurement differences across datasets, keeping implied probabilities tightly clustered across the 1.30–1.49 °C range and underscoring the value of upcoming NOAA and NASA updates for refining trader positioning.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
マーケット開始日： Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/10マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.5 °C in late August 2026 and forecasts pointing to a very strong or record peak later in the year, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing September 2026 global surface temperatures toward the higher bins near or above 1.45–1.49 °C. This event builds on elevated baseline ocean heat content and follows July’s observed anomaly of roughly 1.56 °C, though the typical 3–5 month lag in global-mean response means much of the El Niño’s full warming influence arrives after September. Model ensembles show wide spreads in exact monthly outcomes due to internal variability, potential short-term cooling from regional patterns, and measurement differences across datasets, keeping implied probabilities tightly clustered across the 1.30–1.49 °C range and underscoring the value of upcoming NOAA and NASA updates for refining trader positioning.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/10マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETA rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.5 °C in late August 2026 and forecasts pointing to a very strong or record peak later in the year, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing September 2026 global surface temperatures toward the higher bins near or above 1.45–1.49 °C. This event builds on elevated baseline ocean heat content and follows July’s observed anomaly of roughly 1.56 °C, though the typical 3–5 month lag in global-mean response means much of the El Niño’s full warming influence arrives after September. Model ensembles show wide spreads in exact monthly outcomes due to internal variability, potential short-term cooling from regional patterns, and measurement differences across datasets, keeping implied probabilities tightly clustered across the 1.30–1.49 °C range and underscoring the value of upcoming NOAA and NASA updates for refining trader positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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